UPDATE: See updates at the bottom of this post.
Everyone has wondered what the Honduran population thinks about the events over the past two weeks. I think the CID-Gallup
poll gives us a first hint, but leaves more questions.
Asked whether they believed the removal of President Zelaya was justified, 41% agreed, 28% disagreed, 31% said don't know/won't answer.
UPDATE: Asked if they agree with the actions that removed him, 41% agreed and 46% disagreed. See below.
47% of Hondurans believe Zelaya was convoking the constitutional referendum to change the reelection rules and remain in power. 36% believe he was just trying to change the constitution overall.
63% disagreed with Zelaya's call for a constitutional assembly (the question that was supposed to be asked in the plebicite the Sunday he was overthrown). 23% agree and 15% said they don't know.
In terms of party identification, 38% identified with the Liberal Party, 33% with the National Party and 27% with no party. Both Zelaya and Micheletti are members of the Liberal Party.
A couple warnings: First, these numbers come from interviews done from 30 June-4 July, so they are already a few days old and public opinion could have shifted within that time. Second, polling immediately after a coup comes with a huge set of difficulties. These numbers are probably relatively accurate, but there are some questions that need to be raised.
Some thoughts:1) The 41-28 split suggests that there is a slight plurality in favor of Zelaya's ouster, but that there certainly isn't a solid majority either for or against it. These numbers suggests a fairly divided public. Even with plurality support, it doesn't look great for Micheletti. (I wrote previously that post-hoc public approval would not justify a coup, no matter what these numbers showed.)
2) Who are you 31% of people with no opinion on the issue? Do you really not know? Do you have a nuanced opinion that can't simply be answered with yes or no? Are you scared to answer because of the military? Are you embarrassed to answer that you're in favor of a "coup"? Do you just not care because you think all politicians are corrupt? It's probably some combination of all five of those choices (with many leaning towards the final "they're all corrupt" reason), but I think digging down into how a third of the population doesn't have an opinion is worthwhile.
UPDATE: Now we know that this 31% was answering a slightly different question; see below.
3) While there wasn't a specific approve/disapprove number of Zelaya published, it's pretty clear from these numbers that he wasn't very popular and lacks majority support (in fact, 4 in 10 dislike him enough they think it was ok to oust him early). If he does come back, he's going to face significant challenges.
UPDATE: As discussed over at Greg's
blog, there is some controversy over these numbers as there are now a second set of numbers being reported in the media. The Honduran media, most Latin American media, Reuters, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal report the numbers I have above. However, VOA, AP and the NYT report that the numbers are actually 41% in favor, 46% against.
The other number appear to come from an interview Carlos Denton, president of CID-Gallup, on
VOA. You can hear the very short audio clip on the website, but there is limited context to it.
Which one is correct? Are they potentially both correct, but answering different questions (sometimes pollsters ask questions 2 or 3 different ways)?
CID-Gallup hasn't placed the data on their website yet and reporters haven't updated their stories or gotten back to me. I'm traveling this weekend, so I won't be around to update much, but I'll look into this more next week.
UPDATE: I have the data from CID-Gallup (thanks to them), and although I'm having a hard time formatting the document correctly to view the graphics, I think I've sorted out what occurred with these numbers. There are two questions related to the removal of President Zelaya. I'm going to keep them in Spanish so everyone can see them:
¿Considera usted que las acciones que tomó Mel Zelaya con respecto a la cuarta urna justificaban su destitución del puesto de Presidente de la República?Yes 41%, No 28%, Don't know/No answer: 31%.
¿Cuánto está usted de acuerdo con la acción que se tomó el pasado domingo que removió el Presidente Zelaya del país?Support 41%, Oppose 46%, Don't know/No Answer 13%.
Essentially, the first question asks whether Mel Zelaya deserved to be removed due to his power grab and the second asks if the person agrees with the action that removed him. This is a good example how the wording of questions matters in a poll.
From a media perspective, La Prensa didn't specifically lie but absolutely committed a sin of omission. They had that 41-46 number against the coup, that number is very relevant (potentially more relevant than the other one), and they should have published both numbers. Not doing so created an image about the poll that wasn't true and spread through many other media. They should correct their articles as should everyone who published using their information.
My quick analysis now having the full data: If this poll is accurate, there are (or were last week) 40% of Hondurans strongly in favor of the removal of Zelaya, 30% of Hondurans who strongly support Zelaya and 30% who have a nuanced view, disliking Zelaya but also disagreeing with or not comfortable with the coup and the Micheletti government. Specifically on the coup, 41-46 is essentially a divided country leaning against the coup.
As I've written previously, no post-hoc public opinion number would justify the coup, but none of these numbers are good for Micheletti. Having a 40% base of support would be a great start to running a winning election campaign. However, in trying to consolidate a coup, only starting with 40% makes life very difficult and doesn't suggest the majority public support the government claims.