China vs. Haiti

The UN peacekeeping force in Haiti may possibly get caught up in the China-Taiwan dispute (Hattip to Nadezhda over at Liberals Against Terrorism).

Haiti is among several Latin American countries to formally recognize Taiwan over China. An argument over a visit to Taiwan by the interim president means that China may use its veto power at the UNSC to cut the UN peacekeeping mission in Haiti short. This wouldn't be immediate, but it could occur in the next year or two. Kofi Annan and others have predicted that stabilizing and rebuilding Haiti is a minimum ten year mission.

Is China really willing to condemn a country mired in corruption and anarchy over a petty political dispute? Probably not. Over the past few years China has been more willing (at least in Latin America) to work with governments that formally endorse Taiwan. It bothers China and they make it known, but they generally do not take a hard line knowing that long term the countries will accept China as an economic market and political force, even if official diplomatic recognition does not come right away.

In Haiti, China has found a way to send 150 or so peacekeepers into the Western Hemisphere and have them act with Western Hemisphere militaries. This is a boon to their mil-mil relations, their soft power push into the US sphere of influence and their intelligence operations. If China were to shut down the UN mission, they'd lose that small but significant military influence in the region. They'd probably also piss off Brazil, Chile and Argentina, who they have been working hard to gain influence with.

Should the Western Hemisphere call China's bluff? Not in the near term. While unlikely, if China followed through with their veto next month, the consequences for Haiti would be awful. Although our hemisphere may find a way to maintain a "coalition of the willing" in Haiti in order to continue stability and rebuilding operations, it would lack the legitimacy of the UN. By UN legitimacy I'm referring to the fact the UN mandate is providing domestic political cover in several countries, including Brazil and Argentina. If that mandate were to fall, domestic political pressure may cause some countries to withdraw their forces.

So while I don't think China will pull the veto trigger, we unfortunately need to play China's ridiculous little political game for a while longer on the off chance they're serious. The UN should pass the peacekeeping mandate at six months rather than one year in order to make China happy and we should quietly encourage Haitian officials to tone down their pro-Taiwan rhetoric. In the meantime, we (and by we, I mean the Western Hemisphere) should begin preparing for a scenario in which the UN loses its mandate in Haiti and forces are still needed for stabilization and reconstruction. China may be willing to leave Haiti as a failed state; I like to hope that our hemisphere is finally willing to own up to its responsibility to do better.