Tom Friedman, in an unwitting answer to this week's Washington Monthly debate, says the war in Iraq did not just cause democratic reforms to begin. It apparently caused suicide bombers to start attacking Muslims, particularly those in favor of reform. Long term, he says, the war within Islam must take place between the nihilist jihadists and the democratic reformers and democracy will prevail. It's a commentary that provides one possible explanation for the events of the past few months.
However, the notion that this will end in democracy is not assured. What happens when the jihadists make the security situation so bad that the average citizen stops making freedom a top priority and settles for the leader who can provide the best security against the suicide bombers? I think it is equally likely that over the next two decades the "war within Islam" could lead to democracy, or simply to a new style of dictator. The vision of democracy is important, but it's a mistake to assume it is the only possible outcome.
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