A focus group of one

On the taxi ride to the airport in Guadalajara, I spoke with the driver on a number of issues including how he views the upcoming presidential election. I think his views are representative of a significant portion of the country outside of Mexico City. He feels none of the candidates represent him.

He doesn't hate President Fox, but he also doesn't feel that Fox has done a great job for the country. He sees him as an average president, similar to other politicians in the country. He has no reason to vote for Creel or the PAN, because he doesn't see their policies as improving his daily life.

The driver didn't trust the PRI. While he said he might be willing to give them another chance, their corrupt rule in the past made him dislike the thought of them retaking power. He couldn't name the PRI candidate (Madrazo) but he seemed incredibly distrustful of any PRI candidate.

He didn't think AMLO represented him. No, this doesn't fall into the right-left debate and for all the Chavez-bashers out there, my driver could care less about Latin American regional politics. The fact is, AMLO is the mayor of Mexico City and the residents of Guadalajara and other major Mexican cities aren't quite sure they want someone from the DF to be their president.

This is the paradox that the Mexican presidential candidates face. Each has his base: Creel among the upper class, businessmen and ranchers; Madrazo among the PRI loyalists, and AMLO among the poor in the DF and Tabasco. However, a large percentage of the Mexican population simply "doesn't trust any of them" as my cab driver put it.

My cab driver had lived in Guadalajara his entire life. He had four daughters, three of whom were married and all of them still living in the city. He worked ten hours a day driving a taxi, glad to get a dozen passengers, and he lived above the poverty line but certainly didn't qualify as middle class. He was a fan of Chivas and looking forward to drinking a beer and watching the game tonight. He was proud to tell me that he once traveled to Los Angeles and saw a baseball game.

There are thousands if not millions of Mexicans who have similar stories. What's missing from that story is they simply don't see politics as relative to their lives. One year out from the election, each presidential candidate should be asking himself how they can connect with the taxi driver or the waiter or the saleswoman. Each candidate may have the opportunity to win a bare plurality or win because they are the "least-worst"” option, but it is the candidate and the party that aims higher that will have a chance to accomplish something real for the Mexican population.

In order to do this, AMLO may find a way by speaking to all Mexicans from all regions. Creel may find a way by proposing some social legislation that will blunt the impact of globalization. Madrazo may try to show a new PRI, one that is transparent and democratic. But for each of these candidates, it's an uphill battle against their reputations and their parties' histories.