CAFTA vs. Chavez
If you look at the list below, you'll find a few good reasons to vote for CAFTA, along with a few good reasons to vote against. However, as the vote has grown closer, some CAFTA supporters, most recently the Washington Post, have backed off the economic arguments and instead focused on their regional bogeyman, Hugo Chavez.
Failure to pass CAFTA will not throw our five Central American allies suddenly to the dark side, nor will the passage of CAFTA wave a magic wand over the region and cause economic populism to go away.
Long term (5-15 years), free trade agreements like CAFTA can become a weapon against economic populism, like the type currently ruling Venezuela. Whether you agree with the specifics of CAFTA or not, free trade is essential to development in Latin America. Defeating the "Chavez threat" requires sustained diplomacy and economic interaction with countries in Latin America, of which CAFTA is only a small piece.
The bad news for bill's supporters is, in the short term (1-3 years) the passage of CAFTA may actually benefit Chavez. CAFTA becomes Chavez's whipping boy, a gringo economic policy he can point to when development doesn't come immediately or some people lose out in the new free trade deal. Chavez doesn't care whether it's true or not. The Venezuelan regime is a master of public relations and they will find a way to turn CAFTA against us in the media. This isn't an argument against CAFTA, but it is something to be prepared for.
There are plenty of economic and political reasons to support CAFTA. Advocates of the policy should not to oversell this bill as a giant-slayer or use fear of the bogeyman to gain votes.
Failure to pass CAFTA will not throw our five Central American allies suddenly to the dark side, nor will the passage of CAFTA wave a magic wand over the region and cause economic populism to go away.
Long term (5-15 years), free trade agreements like CAFTA can become a weapon against economic populism, like the type currently ruling Venezuela. Whether you agree with the specifics of CAFTA or not, free trade is essential to development in Latin America. Defeating the "Chavez threat" requires sustained diplomacy and economic interaction with countries in Latin America, of which CAFTA is only a small piece.
The bad news for bill's supporters is, in the short term (1-3 years) the passage of CAFTA may actually benefit Chavez. CAFTA becomes Chavez's whipping boy, a gringo economic policy he can point to when development doesn't come immediately or some people lose out in the new free trade deal. Chavez doesn't care whether it's true or not. The Venezuelan regime is a master of public relations and they will find a way to turn CAFTA against us in the media. This isn't an argument against CAFTA, but it is something to be prepared for.
There are plenty of economic and political reasons to support CAFTA. Advocates of the policy should not to oversell this bill as a giant-slayer or use fear of the bogeyman to gain votes.
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