Chavista poll numbers

Yesterday's Christian Science Monitor ran an interview with Sumate leader Maria Corina Machado. Sumate is a pro-democracy, anti-Chavez group in Venezuela that has received some funding from the US government through NED. Chavez is highly critical of that funding, and there is a legitimate debate over whether the US should fund these groups (I'm all for it).

However, the Christian Science Monitor falls into the same trap as many other media in one line.

The charismatic and controversial president enjoys 70 percent support in polls and has a campaign chest filled by record world petroleum prices.

A single poll in March (and I will grant, a respected polling company) found Chavez with 70% support. The Venezuelan government and the MVR have put that number into every press release for nearly two months now. Ever think there might be a newer poll or one that asks a slightly different question?

One poll taken a few weeks later in March 2005 had Chavez at 53% and his disapproval at 38%.

A poll taken over several weeks in March and April had his approval rating at 65%.

A poll in early May asking the question, "Who do you have more confidence in?" had Chavez 54%, Opposition 23%, Don't know 24%.

That same polling company in early May found that Chavez's party, the MVR, would only win 42% of the vote although the opposition parties do far worse.

There's no doubt Chavez has some popularity, probably hovering between 50% and 65% right now. His poll numbers vary based on the question asked and the sampling model used by the polling firm. The numbers will continue to increase or decrease over the next year as oil prices change, unemployment changes, corruption allegations at PDVSA are revealed and the opposition really begins campaigning for 2006.

And yet, I fully expect the US and world media to hawk this 70% number for a few months more because that's the story that sells the papers and can be found without too much research. I'll be interested to see which is the first major US media outlet to use a new poll number not sanctioned by the Chavez government or provide a diversity of poll numbers. The situation in Venezuela is a lot more complex than a single poll benefiting either side could possibly show.