Trying to find a common thread is rather difficult. Perhaps the complexity of the times? Perhaps the reluctance of people to reply frankly since confidentiality seems every day more and more impaired? However one thing seems certain: no matter how we analyze the different poll results, there seems to be a hard core pro Chavez support that is between 30 and 35% (even seen in a nice pie chart!). And the hard core opposition seems stuck at 30%. Thus there is a floating 40% that seems to have loosely set on Chavez for the time being, thankful for the social programs but perhaps not as grateful as this one would like.
There is also another explanation: Chavez is like Reagan in a certain Teflon like quality, nothing sticking to him.
On the Venezuelan opposition:
The opposition seems on the verge of two more major electoral defeats. Unfortunately this time it will have only itself to blame as Chavez will not even need to cheat electorally and thus will get the final validation from the dubious August 15 result.
Can the opposition still do something? At this late point no. Any major agreement should have been reached at least 2 or 3 months earlier to give it a chance of some momentum. At least we can hope that August 7 will witness the end of a few people within the opposition that are just dead weight, the painful emergence of some new leadership, and the realization that organization and programs are the only way out. People like the folks at SUMATE, editors like Petkoff, NGO organizing neighborhoods (asambleas de ciudadanos) are what it will take to perhaps one day remove Chavez from office before the country becomes once and for all some freaky construct that depends on the humor of the supreme leader depending on what he has had for breakfast.
If everyone had that level of candor in the Venezuelan opposition, maybe they would come together and actually get something done. He's right that the opposition needs a new set of leaders and that there is little they can do within the next few months. They have to aim their goals at some longer term goals.
The essay also has a lot of good stuff on how Chavez has altered the political landscape to maintain power through some less than honest means and what the opposition must do to overcome some of the institutional factors against them. For those interested in the current political situation in Venezuela and the upcoming local and congressional elections, it's really a must read. However, for those who aren't geeks like me, you may want to skip some of the technical aspects of the first section on the mechanics of the electoral system and move onto section two.
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