General elections in Bolivia are set for December (second BBC article here) . Those elections will include elections of the members of Congress. Right now, the solution to Bolivia's crises are not very clear. There is not a single political group polling over 30% right now. Various groups are already threatening to protest if their opponents win.
In short, Bolivia needs a massive restructuring and realignment of their political system. That's not easy.
In the best case scenario. some group needs to create a consensus that brings together Bolivia's "silent majority" and causes them to become active in the country's politics. This group would need to actively campaign on a daily basis against the "noisy minorities" that are the protesters in the West and the autonomists in the East. I would argue that former President Mesa would actually be the ideal person to lead that group, not as a presidential candidate but as a congressional candidate and the leader of a new party. Unfortunately, Mesa has not given any indication of wanting to get involved in politics again. He was very frustrated by his time in office.
Barring the creation of a "radical center" in Bolivian politics that would outweigh the extremists on the left and right, the other option for stability is not pretty. The center-left (and the fact Evo Morales is "center-left" shows just how far the left goes in Bolivia) could win the presidency and offer autonomy to the Western states. It's a lousy option economically, but it would bring at least temporary political stability.
As always when dealing with Bolivia, Eduardo and Miguel (MABB) have more and better analysis on a regular basis.
0 comments:
Post a Comment