Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo enters his fourth year in office today. Since 2002, he has not had over 25% in any opinion poll and has at times been in the single digits. The most recent polling has him around 15%.
Toledo has improved Peru's economy and deserves praise simply for surviving as long as he has in a region that has kicked several unpopular presidents out of office. However, he was never able to meet the expectations from his campaign promises and Peru's media has been unrelenting in hitting him with scandal after scandal story (many of them deserved).
Peru's election is scheduled for April of 2006. The current polling shows Lourdes Flores and Valentin Paniagua in the lead with former President Alan Garcia close behind. I think Flores and Paniagua will make good candidates. In my opinion, Garcia's negatives, like Evo Morales', are too high for him to ever gain significant support in the population.
As the Economist notes this week, Alberto Fujimori is still planning his return from Japan, even though Peruvian law says he can't run. While he would be unlikely to win, like Garcia, he could have a significant impact as a minority candidate.
Lots of time to go until the election and the Peruvian media has a knack for digging up scandals, which I think could play a major role in the election. It will be interesting to see whether Flores (who was forced to resign a previous post over a scandal) and Paniagua can stay clean and give it a good race.
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