Accusations?

From the LA Times regarding former Mexican President Carlos Salinas de Gortari:

His reappearance may be partly an attempt to rehabilitate his image. The ex-president has been dogged by accusations that he stole the 1988 presidential election in a massive fraud, and that he spirited millions of dollars of pilfered government money and bribes out of the country. Authorities have seized vast sums from his brother's Swiss bank account and are seeking to prosecute him.

Saying that Salinas faces accusations of election fraud and corruption is like saying Bill Clinton faces accusations on infidelity. Everyone's pretty sure they're actually true at this point.

But others suspect that Salinas may also be trying to play kingmaker ahead of next year's presidential election.

Anyone who comes within 100 miles of Salinas will automatically lose the election. He can't play the kingmaker, but he could be the king's assassin. Actually, the issue of Salinas is now playing into the PRI primary and the fights between Madrazo and Gordillo. I don't expect the issue to last very long, but if Gordillo can peg Madrazo as a Salinas ally, he's done.

On the other end of Latin America, accusations of corruption continue to cause problems for Brazilian President Lula da Silva. He's not accused of corruption, but he's too close to it.

So far, none of the allegations of wrongdoing has directly implicated the president, a former labor union leader who took office in 2002 promising to root out corruption associated with the country's ruling elite. But the allegations have led may Brazilians to ask how much longer he can govern unscathed as senior aides and allies fall around him.

In a survey published Thursday by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics in Sao Paulo, 49 percent of those responding disapproved of Lula's administration and 45 percent approved -- a long fall from the 60 percent approval ratings he enjoyed last spring.

"People said they believe he's not involved, but that he trusts too much in the people around him," said Marcia Cavallari, director of the institute. "Since the crisis started, his approval keeps going down, little by little."

The chances of impeachment remain slim, analysts said, in part because many of Lula's opponents would rather face him as a weakened candidate in elections a year from now. Lula has not yet said whether he will seek reelection, but an unfriendly Chamber of Deputies speaker could also make it difficult for his administration to pass legislation in the coming year.

I think some analysts are too willing to write off Lula; his personal charisma and his ability thus far to dodge corruption charges make him the front-runner. Whoever wants to beat Lula has to convince people that Lula is doing a bad job AND that they will do a better one. John Kerry lost here in the states because as bad as people viewed the president, they couldn't see Kerry doing better. The Brazilian opposition is going to face a similar problem. People may have seen Lula's flaws, but they don't necessarily see a better candidate on the horizon yet.

UPDATE: There will be a runoff vote on October 9 for the leader of Lula's Worker's Party (PT) because nobody outright won the first round. While Lula is only taking a glancing blow from the corruption scandals, his party has been torn apart and has completely lost the trust of the people. I expect them to lose many seats in the next legislative elections, even if Lula wins the presidency.