Is coca an issue? (Part 2)

Both Eduardo and Miguel think increased coca production would be damaging for Bolivia. I'm inclined to agree. Cocaine production and trafficking is an economic, political and environmental disaster, not to mention the violence that often follows behind it. So in that sense, if Evo Morales' promise to stop eradication and allow greater coca production leads to greater cocaine production in Bolivia (as many people believe it will), then coca is definitely an issue for Bolivia's future.

But how does it play into the December election? Most Bolivians know that cocaine is bad for their country, but most also recognize coca has a place in their culture and don't like what they view as US-imposed policies. Like campaign finance reform here in the US, the fact most voters have an opinion does not mean most voters will cast their ballot based on it. Most will be voting on larger issues of employment, security, natural resources and their democracy as a whole.

Morales is making the promises on coca because he needs to shore up his key constituencies of coca growers and hardline leftists. While most voters don't vote on the coca issue, many of those who do will be rural farmers who want to grow coca. Morales knows that in Bolivia, being pro-coca is a safe statement for him to make. While there are probably many voters who understand the negative consequences of coca and cocaine, very few will vote against him specifically for that reason.

Morales is also doing two other things with his statements. First, he is positioning himself internationally. His statements are carefully constructed to make his position seem moderate. He knows, however, that if he can provoke a reaction from the US, that he'll benefit politically from the attention. In 2002, negative attention from the US gave Morales a boost in name recognition and pushed him into a strong second place. As he positions himself as a moderate, a reaction from the US may help him and may back his opponents into a corner.

Second, Morales is positioning himself for a fight after the election. It is likely that the election will not be decided in the first round, and unless a compromise appears, the presidency will be decided by Bolivia's Congress. Having a fairly hard position on his key issue will give him some negotiating capital when the parties start jockeying for position after the election.

Then again, there are those who don't think Morales is politically smart and is just shooting his mouth off and not thinking strategically like I write above. That's possible too.

Part 1 where I asked whether coca would be a political issue in Bolivia's election is here. Even though only a small percentage of Bolivians are voting on the issue, I think on a larger strategic level it will play into how the election turns out.