Who wants poll numbers?

Time for your Latin America poll number fix.

In Honduras, a poll taken near the end of August showed a virtual tie, with Lobo Sosa winning 37% to Zelaya's 35%. Another poll done by Gallup showed a 36-36 tie. This one is going to be close. See my previous commentary on the election here.

In Costa Rica, a recent poll showed former President Arias with 37%, sparking debate over the possibility of a second round (he needs over 40% to avoid the second round). However, another poll had him over 45%.

A poll done throughout Central America showed the following presidential popularities:
Berger (Guatemala) 19%
Maduro (Honduras) 35%
Saca (El Salvador) 57%
Bolanos (Nicaragua) 29%
Pacheco (Costa Rica) 26%
Torrijos (Panama) 34%

With the exception of Saca, all of those numbers look much lower than I've seen in other polls in the region. It could be that Gallup did interviews rather than telephone calls, so they may have sampled more of the urban and rural poor. However, nearly every other poll has each of those presidents 5-10% higher in approval.

In Colombia, the most recent presidential poll shows President Uribe would win 70% of the vote and his nearest rivals are in single digits. For someone to have a chance at beating Uribe, one of these opponents is going to need to start standing out from the pack.

In Peru, Presidential Candidate Flores is maintaining her poll numbers in the mid-20's while her main opponents are dropping significantly. Yet, 25% won't win the election. President Toledo will be glad to know he's back in double digits at 14% popularity.

In Chile, Michelle Bachelet is walking away with the election, more than doubling the numbers of her rivals. However, she hasn't crossed the 50% mark yet, leaving open the possibility of a second round.