While Quiroga plays a numbers game and tries to win Congress, Morales must continue to play an image game. His goal should not be to win 50%. Rather, he must become an acceptable alternative as president to a majority of Bolivians, even if he is not everyone's first choice. If he wins the presidential vote while Quiroga wins the Congress, the real question is not who do Bolivians want more. The questions that need to be asked are "Would a majority of Bolivians accept the first place winner as president?" and "Do a majority of Bolivians want Congress reject the first place winner as president?"
I honestly believe the only way Congress will have the political capital to overturn the first place winner is if a majority of Bolivians approve of Congress doing just that. So for Morales, his goal must be to improve his image so that he becomes acceptable to a majority and it becomes difficult for Congress to overturn his victory.
A long time ago (ok, it was last July) I wrote politely of those who were predicting the Morales win early:
"HAVE YOU SEEN HIS FREAKING POLL NUMBERS?????"At the time, Morales had less than 20% support and his negatives were as high as 70% in some polls. As I wrote in July, as many Bolivians disapproved of Morales as disapproved of Bush. The chances of a Morales win at the time were slim to none, not because of his low support but rather because so many people automatically disapproved of him. Morales' hardest challenge in this campaign has not been to raise his support; it's been to drop his negatives.
If I was offering campaign advice to Evo (and I'm not consulting for any candidate in Bolivia), it would be to debate. One debate, 90 minutes on live TV. He doesn't have to win the debate; he just needs to score some points and come across as a calm, moderate individual who appears "presidential". If he can manage to do that for 90 minutes in the last month of a campaign, 15 years of his history would be changed in the minds of many voters. Of course, one bad debate would kill his candidacy, so the decision to debate would have to be judged on whether Morales could actually appear presidential for 90 minutes while debating issues.
If I were giving advice to Quiroga, simply win the popular vote. One vote more than Morales and the Congress will ratify his victory. Quiroga cannot want to be a president who failed to win the popular vote. If that were the case, he'd manage to stay for a few months, but I wouldn't put money on him making it a year. So while Quiroga may be able to win in the Congress after coming in second, those numbers simply don't add up to a successful presidency.
For Quiroga it's about numbers (Can he win the votes?). For Morales it's about image (Can he appear acceptable?). There's just over one month left to go.
UPDATE: The other Miguel has some great analysis of this poll as well.
2 comments:
I think Evo will eventually debate, although he needs significant coaching. The last debate which he didn't show up was in a hostile environment, CAINCO in Santa Cruz. I think everyone would gladly put his VP up against anyone, but it doesn't work liket hat, Evo needs to vote. Maybe he can condition his participation by insisting that Quispe is invited along. That way Evo would seem a lot more acceptable than el Mallku.
Right. Bolivia and the USA are the only countries in which a presidential candidate might not win the office despite coming in first place in the sole or final round of popular voting.
Good political company we are keeping there.
I like the chances of Bolivia modernizing its presidential selection better than I like our own prospects for the same. (However, in fact, Bolivia's process encourages coalition building, so it is not all bad. Ours on the other hand...)
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