The Miami Herald has a final roundup of the election. My summary from late July is here. Lobo Sosa leads Zelaya by eight points according to the most recent (and controversial) Gallup poll. However, there are enough undecided voters that the election could tip either way.
Security issues have dominated the election in recent months, with both candidates vowing to be tough on gangs and drug traffickers. The debate whether the death penalty should be applied to violent gang members has been intense, but in my opinion over-amplified. The debate is really over security, not punishment, and the voters aren't very pro- or anti-death penalty. Voters are just trying to gauge which candidate will keep them safe and both candidates are gambling over what signals to send voters to transfer that message.
The campaign has also been dirty with lots of scandal allegations. Many voters are disgusted at both sides and there will be a high abstention rate as many voters simply don't like or hate either candidate enough to be motivated to go to the polls.
UPDATE: AP story here and BBC here and here.
UPDATE2: Exit polls are calling it barely for Zelaya.
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