Good Morning. Sorry for the light blog posting this week, but I still made time for poll numbers. Last week's numbers are here.
In Mexico, a columnist notes that in El Universal's most recent poll, independents take up 44% of the population. Out of those independents, it's AMLO 36, Calderon 27, Madrazo 14. Also in Mexico, a poll (by a firm I don't recognize) done in the capital shows that AMLO would receive 66% of the presidential vote in that city. It also shows him with a 74% approval rating in the city where he was once mayor. I think that's a positive sign for him if he can leave office after a few years on the job with such high approval ratings.
In Haiti, where elections are scheduled for 7 February, the only credible poll taken this cycle had former President Prevel with a wide lead over all his opponents. I have nothing more recent, so the link goes to this week's Economist article on the upcoming elections.
In Costa Rica, nearly all polls have former President Arias above 40%, meaning he'll avoid a runoff and win outright this Sunday.
In El Salvador, Tim has the most recent poll showing a huge jump for the FMLN in the upcoming mayoral and legislative races. They've gone from 10 points down to a virtual tie in many races. I'm sure the death of former guerrilla leader Handal played a role in this poll, but I'm not sure whether the jump in support is sustainable.
In Colombia (also here), three polls show President Uribe running strong, with approval rates in the high 60's or low 70's and reelection rates in the high 50's. One poll two weeks ago caused a bit of a stir when it showed him with a 48% reelection rate, but none of the other polls are matching that one. The other big news from Colombia this week was that Senator Navarro Wolf dropped out of the race.
In Venezuela, Venezuelan Vice President Rangel says that Chavez's approval numbers are at 78%. That number is absurdly high. It's safe to say from the polls that I've seen that Chavez's support is around 60% right now. I think 60% is a pretty good number and there is no reason to lie, but the government apparently thinks otherwise.
In Peru, a new poll has Flores 30, Humala 22. That poll seems to confirm that Flores has widened the gap between the two, but as I said last week, I think Humala will manage to bounce back before the first round of the election.
UPDATE on Mexico and Venezuela here.
Contra-Cronkite
2 hours ago
8 comments:
Regarding El Salvador, was there any reason to believe a poll with a ten-point lead?
The FMLN and ARENA have been pretty close to tied in the legislative elections since the FMLN began participating.
I just read the story you linked on Navarro's ending his presidential campaign. I don't understand something.
It says, "Navarro had been due to compete to be Alternative Democratic Pole candidate in a run-off election on March 12 against Sen. Carlos Gaviria."
But a registered party in Colombia can present only one presidential candidate in the first round. Also, the presidential election is not on March 12. That would be the legislative election.
So, I assume this reporter just does not understand Colombian elections, or electoral-system concepts more generally. (Alas, few do!)
I assume the reporter meant that the Polo Democrático is holding a primary (consulta popular) concurrent with the March 12 legislative election to determine its presidential candidate for the subsequent two-round presidential election. (Two-round, that is, if no one wins a majority in the first round.)
Correct?
Actually, the last several polls have shown about a ten point lead for ARENA. In the past few years, both parties seem to have lost voters. The FMLN has lost more than ARENA.
The death of Handal for one reason or another caused a number of voters to decide to connect, at least briefly, with the FMLN.
Long term, there is probably room for a center to center-left party to pull in those voters who do not connect with either party. Either the FMLN will move more towards the center or a third party will rise up.
The real question in El Salvador is whether the current poll is accurate. It showed a large decrease in undecided voters from earlier polls, and apparently most of that went to the benefit of the FMLN.
Of course, the elections are not at large across the country, but legislators and mayors are elected district by district, city by city. There don't seem to be any published polls which analyze how many legislators or mayor positions each party might pick up. These national preference polls may not be a good measure of how the balance of power in the National Assemmbly might shift.
On the Navarro Wolf story, there was a scheduled primary on 12 March concurrent with the legislative elections. The turnout would have been low and embarrassed whomever won.
The reporter used "runoff" rather than primary, which was a mistake that I didn't even pick up on.
Navarro's blog is here if you're interested in his statement.
Why do you think Flores will lose her lead in Peru?
Do you think the addition of Hernando de Soto to her team will make any difference? I know he's a darling with us in the developed world, but surely, given his role in drying up the Shining Path, he must be well regarded by at least some Peruvians beyond the middle class.
I wonder about this.
Hernando de Soto can do nothing but help. The man is a hero in Peru and in the world in terms of his theories on development. I think Flores made a great move in naming him.
On Humala, first, I think the polls in Peru are slightly off. I think Humala was ahead for the last few weeks and his recent drop only pulled Flores even. I've studied some of the sample and turnout models and they simply aren't capturing all of Humala's vote. I'll try to elaborate on that in a future post.
Second, Humala's campaign is going to learn from its mistakes over the past few weeks. He's going to clean up the corruption in his campaign and publicly move away from Chavez.
If Humala wants to win, he isn't going to look to today's Hugo Chavez (who is not well liked in Peru), but he is going to study the 1998 version of Chavez. The one who ran against the corrupt elite politicians and won by promising change and power for the powerless. It's a message that will resonate among Peru's electorate today. As Humala finds that message, while avoiding the appearance of being a puppet of a foreign leader, his popularity will begin to rise.
Regarding Colombia, perhaps the only candidate with potential for challenging Uribe, although very hard to do, it is Antanas Mockus. Being a philosopher and a mathematician, this former Major of Bogotá (2 times) has shown how to do effective and long-range results using education and the transformation of culture as his trademarks.
See for instance:
http://antanasmockuspresidente.blogspot.com/
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