Mexico debates

After reading a number of reviews of the Mexican presidential debate (including LAT, El Universal (with student focus group), Economista, Alt1040 live blogging), it really looks like the biggest winner may have been Patricia Mercado.

Mercado is a center-left union organizer who has been running in the single digits in the polls. I haven't talked about Mercado because her campaign has been going nowhere and she is not considered a major contender. However, in reading the debate reports, she had an impact on everyone who watched last night. She gave meaningful proposals and simply held her own against the three men who fumbled around attacking each other. If she had the impact that the reports say she did, she may get 10-15% in the next poll. While this still wouldn't put her in the top three, it would be a huge momentum boost and get her some media attention. I know Mexicans are starting to get tired of the negative campaign from all sides, and Mercado may be a fresh choice for some to consider.

Calderon probably ran even, doing an good job in some places and spending too much time attacking Madrazo in others. He didn't score any points, but he also didn't lose any. However, as Woody Allen said, 80% of success is just showing up and in that Calderon succeeded where AMLO failed.

Madrazo and Campa seem to have both lost the debate. I have no clue what Madrazo's strategy is at this point. Does he believe he can take votes away from Calderon by attacking him on corruption, the issue on which Madrazo is weakest?

I think the empty podium will hurt AMLO. By not participating in the debate, he avoided making any major errors, but he also didn't take the opportunity to swing the election momentum back his way. His main supporters will still like him, but the swing voters that AMLO needs to win are going to want to see him go toe-to-toe with Calderon before July 2.