Good Morning!!! Last week's numbers are here.
In Mexico, a poll from El Universal shows Calderon 39, AMLO 35, Madrazo 21. This poll is considered one of the most important in the country, so it received a lot of press. Notimex is reporting that an internal PRD poll has AMLO 43, Calderon 34, Madrazo 23.
In Costa Rica, opinions on CAFTA are still up in the air.
In Nicaragua, a new poll showed Ortega 28, Montealegre 27, Rizo 17, Lewites 15. The polls in this country have been all over the place. Every poll has ten point variations from the previous one and shows a different person in the lead. I'm still waiting to see three polls in a row with similar results.
In Panama, President Torrijos has 64% approval, but crime is still a problem. Meanwhile, although the referendum is still expected to pass, the "no" vote for the expansion for the canal has jumped nearly 10 points to 27%.
In Colombia, Yanhaas reports 57% of voters will vote to reelect President Uribe. Carlos Gaviria is in second with 19%. Gallup agrees, giving 61% to Uribe and 20% to Gaviria. Zogby has Uribe with 67%.
In Peru, a University of Lima poll has the race 62-38 for Garcia. Apoyo has it 56-44. The head of Apoyo polling gave an interview to Reuters where he said that Humala still has a chance to win the election over the next few weeks (and I agree).
In Brazil, which has experienced a week of violence, a poll from Fohla de Sao Paulo says 37% blame former governor and current presidential candidate Alckmin for the violence. 39% blame President Lula da Silva. 55% blame the judicial authorities.
Smarter Nations are More Liberal
3 hours ago
2 comments:
How could Humala win it? That implies an awful lot of voter choice-switching or awfully inaccurate polling.
Two points to start:
1. The numbers above are of "valid votes". There are a number of people who are planning to cast blank ballots and those numbers are not included. The two candidates are much closer in preference than the numbers initially show. With blank ballots counted, Garcia probably has a 10 point lead, not a 20 point, and that's easier to change.
2. There is a feeling that a group of people planning to vote for Garcia were sympathetic to Humala until the recent problems (like the links to Chavez). If Humala could change the topics of debate, he might win some of those voters back.
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