Friday, June 02, 2006

POLL NUMBERS!!! June 2, 2006

Good Morning!!! Lots of polls from Latin America this week. Last week's numbers are here.

In Mexico, two polls show the race back at a tie. Mitofsky has it AMLO 34, Calderon 34, Madrazo 28. Milenio has it AMLO 34, Calderon 33, Madrazo 30. According to Reforma, President Fox's popularity is at 64%. Goleech has the legislative numbers from the Milenio poll showing the PRI doing fairly well.

In El Salvador, President Saca's approval rating fell. On a scale of 1-10, people gave Saca and average of 6.4, down from 6.7 in February. 62% view the country on the wrong track.

In Honduras, 100 days after inauguration, President Zelaya has 39% support and 25% opposition. There's lots of numbers at that link, but the basic story is that Zelaya is well liked as a person, but people are concerned he is not fulfilling his campaign promises. Voters are also very pessimistic about the direction of the country.

In Nicaragua, it's Ortega 28, Montealegre 27, Lewites 18, Rizo 13. If one of these candidates can get over 35%, they win; otherwise it goes to a second round. Montealegre would win in all run-off scenarios, but he has to get there first. There was no word as to whether Ortega's choice of a right-wing Contra as his vice presidential running mate will help or hurt him in the polls.

In Bolivia, President Morales' approval rating jumped back to 81%. The polling firm Apoyo credited his recent nationalization move. The poll also showed that 39% of Bolivians view Venezuela as their country's best friend.

In Brazil, it's Lula 45, Alckmin 22 in the first round. As a side note, in Germany, 54% of Germans believe Brazil will win the World Cup.

In Chile, President Bachelet has a 65% approval rating. Also, 72% of Chileans reject giving sea access to Bolivia.

In Peru, Apoyo has the race tightening to Garcia 55, Humala 45. CPI has it Garcia 60, Humala 40. Datum has it Garcia 58, Humala 42. It's important to note that all three of these polls show that about 20% of voters remain undecided. Garcia is likely to win, but with so many voters undecided, anything can happen.

UPDATE: Reuters on two new Peru polls:
A University of Lima poll showed Garcia taking 52.4 percent of the vote and Humala 47.6 percent while a CPI poll gave Garcia 53.8 percent and Humala 46.2 percent.
This could be very close...

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

CONSTITUCION POLITICA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS
TITULO PRIMERO
CAPITULO III DE LOS EXTRANJEROS

ARTICULO 33

SON EXTRANJEROS, LOS QUE NO POSEAN LAS CALIDADES DETERMINADAS EN EL ARTICULO 30. TIENEN DERECHO A LAS GARANTIAS QUE OTORGA EL CAPITULO I, TITULO PRIMERO, DE LA PRESENTE CONSTITUCION; PERO EL EJECUTIVO DE LA UNION TENDRA LA FACULTAD EXCLUSIVA DE HACER ABANDONAR EL TERRITORIO NACIONAL, INMEDIATAMENTE Y SIN NECESIDAD DE JUICIO PREVIO, A TODO EXTRANJERO CUYA PERMANENCIA JUZGUE INCONVENIENTE.

LOS EXTRANJEROS NO PODRAN DE NINGUNA MANERA INMISCUIRSE EN LOS ASUNTOS POLITICOS DEL PAIS.

Que se entiende por NINGUNA MANERA INMISCUIRSE EN LOS ASUNTOS POLITICOS DEL PAIS
usted comento en alt1040

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boz said...

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