El Impacto del "Pacto"

Still waiting for the results in Nicaragua's election. At this point, all we know for sure is that Ortega is first, Montealegre is second and Rizo is third. The question now is whether numbers allow Ortega a first round win or force a second round. We may not know for a little while yet.

Even as the final results aren't clear, people should be questioning how Ortega even came this close to winning in a country where a majority of voters reject him.

"El Pacto" was an agreement between former Presidents Aleman and Ortega to control power in the legislature. The two, who couldn't be further apart ideologically, joined forces to prevent their prosecution over corruption and maintain their stranglehold on the leadership of the PLC and FSLN parties. Among other things, El Pacto reformed the electoral law to the current situation today, the one that offers Ortega a chance to win in the first round.

Ortega, however, could not win unless his opposition was divided.

It is clear that Rizo pulled votes from Montealegre and split the anti-Ortega candidates. Rizo was Aleman's vice president and was NOT an outspoken opponent of El Pacto when it occurred. It's obvious, at this point, that Rizo's advisers were putting out false poll numbers to skew coverage of the viability of their candidate. Rizo also worked to split conservatives here in the US, getting people like Ollie North and Robert Novak on his side to blunt the concerns coming from the US Embassy. Rizo refused to quit, even when it was obvious his campaign could lead to an Ortega victory.

Daniel Ortega needed someone exactly like Rizo to split his opposition. The question is whether it was intentional on the PLC's part. In other words, did El Pacto continue beyond its announced end? I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories, but this makes a damn good one.