Election this Sunday, and it looks like it could be close.
Vox Latina: Colom 32, Perez 32
Ultima Hora: Colom 35, Perez 27
Borge: Colom 31, Perez 28
The hypothetical second round numbers look similarly close.
Perez has gained a bit in recent months due to his hard-line security stance. Sadly, with nearly 50 candidates killed and over 6,000 murders overall in the past year, security continues to be a major issue in the campaign.
However, no candidate has really seemed to capture momentum during the election season and the number of people undecided or just not voting seems rather large. This puts an extra variable into the numbers above that means they could shift much wider than the margin of error. I think a second round will be necessary.
On the legislative side, polls are predicting an extremely fragmented legislature.
Previous posts on the election here, here and here.
Contra-Cronkite
2 hours ago
1 comments:
From the LATimes LAPlaza blog:
Otto Perez Molina, the conservative former chief of army intelligence, has climbed into a tie in Guatemala’s presidential race, according to a poll in the Guatemala City daily newspaper La Prensa Libre. Perez Molina, the candidate of the Patriot Party, is in a virtual tie with Alvaro Colom, the candidate of the center-left National Unity for Hope. The election is Sunday.
La Prensa Libre has Perez Molina leading Colom, an engineer, 31.8% to 31.7%. Colom had been leading most polls for months. Even more troubling for Colom, La Prensa Libre shows Perez Molina winning a likely Nov. 4 runoff 53% to 47%. Perez Molina has shot ahead with a campaign that promises to rule with a "firm hand" and crack down on crime.
Many observers say Colom performed poorly in a recent debate. He also has been the target of a vicious series of Internet and media attacks. In July, he issued a news release denouncing rumors that he was a devil worshiper.
Posted by Héctor Tobar in Mexico City
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