POLL NUMBERS!!! Does war help Chavez?
Several people have floated the theory that Chavez is pushing for war with Colombia as a way to help his domestic support ratings (some comparing it to Argentina's decision to start the Malvinas/Falklands war in the early 80's). With that in mind, it would be a good time to review the numbers.
Keller has Chavez at 36% approval, Hinterlaces at 38, Datos at 30 and IVAD at 68. Yes, one of those is an outlier.
With the exception of IVAD (which shows a 10 point gain over the past two months), the other polls show a rather significant drop in Chavez's approval over the past few months. Although some people may claim these pollsters are "anti-Chavez," it's important to note that these pollsters all measured Chavez in the upper 50's and lower 60's last year before the 2D referendum. They haven't changed their methodology, which suggests the drop does signal something significant.
So is Chavez saber-rattling to gain public support? Nothing I've seen suggests that a war with Colombia would benefit Chavez's domestic numbers. If anything, one of Chavez's traditional weak spots in all polls is that he spends too much time on foreign issues and not enough time dealing with basic domestic issues like the economy or crime.
Although war may spark a brief nationalistic poll bump in Venezuela, it is far more likely to harm Chavez's approval ratings than help them over the medium and long term. Whatever reasons Chavez has for saber-rattling, boosting his polls is not likely to be one of them.
Keller has Chavez at 36% approval, Hinterlaces at 38, Datos at 30 and IVAD at 68. Yes, one of those is an outlier.
With the exception of IVAD (which shows a 10 point gain over the past two months), the other polls show a rather significant drop in Chavez's approval over the past few months. Although some people may claim these pollsters are "anti-Chavez," it's important to note that these pollsters all measured Chavez in the upper 50's and lower 60's last year before the 2D referendum. They haven't changed their methodology, which suggests the drop does signal something significant.
So is Chavez saber-rattling to gain public support? Nothing I've seen suggests that a war with Colombia would benefit Chavez's domestic numbers. If anything, one of Chavez's traditional weak spots in all polls is that he spends too much time on foreign issues and not enough time dealing with basic domestic issues like the economy or crime.
Although war may spark a brief nationalistic poll bump in Venezuela, it is far more likely to harm Chavez's approval ratings than help them over the medium and long term. Whatever reasons Chavez has for saber-rattling, boosting his polls is not likely to be one of them.
Labels: Colombia, latinamerica, polls, Venezuela |
11 comments:
"Whatever reasons Chavez has for saber-rattling, boosting his polls is not likely to be one of them."
Chavez may be boosted and hung from a pole by his own people if he keeps this up.
That would break my heart ...
boz,
you seem to have a better understanding of the military/security issue (I focus much more on policy and economics). Do you really think war is a possibility here?
Do you really think war is a possibility here?
I like to hope not. I'm working on something right now that basically argues that war would hurt both countries. Neither country should want war with the other because it doesn't really help their strategic goals.
However, Colombia isn't going to stop going after FARC leadership wherever they are and Venezuela's president may not want to back down. That makes things very tense.
Chavez may be boosted and hung from a pole by his own people if he keeps this up.
Let's hope it doesn't go to that level. A violent coup anywhere in Latin America would be a step back for the region.
What is the border area between Venezuela and Colombia like? Is it open and well-connected by roads, or is it jungle? If the latter, I can't see how 10 battalions of tanks would be particularly useful.
What is the border area between Venezuela and Colombia like?
There are roads and some flat terrain where the tanks would be useful in eastern Colombia, but clearly that use would be limited once they reached heavy jungle or mountain ranges. There won't be Venezuelan tanks rolling into Bogota.
How long could Chavez bank on the support of Venezuelans for a war about "insurgents" in Colombia AGAINST Colombia.
VS.
Colombians supporting Uribe for a war against Venezuela made possible by him killing FARC members?
Colombia has been in conflict for 50 years, Are Venezuelans willing to fight over the FARC? and their "insurgents" status change?? LOL please!
Assuming Chavez is thinking about war as way to boost his numbers, he'd do well to recall what happened to the Argentine military government when it took the same approach on the Falklands.
Also, Venezuelan tanks wouldn't make it across the Los Llanos; the Colombian Air Force would see to that.
Another parallel would be the Greek dictatorship's disastrous intervention in Cyprus, which led to the collapse of the dictatorship very soon thereafter.
Boz you are making the assumption that Chavez is a rational actor. It should also be noted that he consistently steals from Castro's moldy playbook in which the impending attack from the great colussus of the north was always utilized to galvanize public support. It also worked for him once before in a stand-off with pre-Correa Ecuador.
I think Chavez is miscalculating on several fronts - 1) As you noted his foreign adventurism is wearing thin on the public 2) I don't know how it is percieved at home but it appears to me that this move looks like it was made to defend FARC rather than Venezuelan territorial integrity. I doubt that any right thinking non-revolutionary would argue with Colombia's right to defend itself.
Post a Comment