As Venezuela moves troops to the Colombian border, there are a lot of military questions and comments about the two sides online. Reading comments online about the possibility of a Venezuelan-Colombian conflict, the comments largely fall into two categories:
1. The Venezuelan military will win because they have the personnel, tanks and Air Force that will beat the Colombian military.
2. The Colombian military will win because they have received billions in US assistance, training and weapons and they are currently showing success against the FARC.
Before you can answer the question of "Who wins?" you need to answer the question "What do they win?"
Is the goal for either side:
Territory occupation/moving the border?
Taking over energy supplies or other natural resources?
Regime change?
Killing a specific target?
The unification of the Grand Bolivarian country?
Winning a single battle just for bragging rights?
The main problem with gaming out a military conflict between Venezuela and Colombia is that the military goals for either side in that conflict aren't very clear. There is anger on both sides, but no real military objectives that an inter-state war would accomplish.
Let's just say for a moment that no specific goal on either side exists but tensions escalate anyway. For example, Colombia successfully kills a FARC leader on the Venezuelan side of the border and Chavez retaliates by sending troops across into Colombia.
From what I've read in the media, it's possible that Venezuela could win an early confrontation in eastern Colombia. Chavez has bought and built up a decent invasion force and they could probably successfully attack military units or some Colombian border towns if they moved quickly, albeit with heavy losses on both sides. Colombia has a strong military and would put up a fight, but Colombia's focus is counter-insurgency across the country, not invasion defense along a single border. However, due to geography and capabilities, Venezuela wouldn't make it beyond the eastern departments of Colombia. The question becomes "then what?" Does Venezuela immediately leave? Or does Venezuela try to hold and occupy the territory they've entered?
If Venezuela leaves, Colombia likely retaliates with a strategic strike inside of Venezuela, which keeps the tensions on the brink. The back and forth would damage both sides and accomplish nothing. Eventually, both sides would probably come to a truce, but not after significant damage was done.
If Venezuela tries to occupy the territory and/or move the border, they would find themselves quickly on the losing end of the war. Colombia has a force that would rapidly regroup, adapt and and start delivering significant losses to Venezuelan military. Chavez would find himself on the wrong side of international opinion. Venezuela's domestic population would only have so much tolerance for the resources wasted. Venezuela would eventually be forced to retreat and would be in a weaker position than it started. For Colombia, even if they bring the border situation back to status quo antebellum, Colombia would also be weakened due to economic losses and infrastructure destruction as well as a loss of focus on counter-insurgency.
The net outcome is that both sides lose out and end up weaker. As cliche as it seems, no side wins in this war. Neither side would reach their strategic objectives and both would find their militaries and economies weakened. Chavez, in particular, would likely find himself having lost significant domestic support if the confrontation is prolonged. For that reason, both sides need to take a step back and the international community (particularly Latin America) needs to make sure that both understand that an inter-state war in South America would not be tolerable.
Instead, how about a nice game of chess?
Contra-Cronkite
2 hours ago
19 comments:
What's the terrain like between Caracas and the frontier? Level? Mountainous? Are there any major bottlenecks (such as big bridges, roads through swamps, mountain passes) that could be blocked, cutting off Venezuelan troops that have progressed towards the frontier, and blocking troops further back?
And could troop movements further inflame anti-government sentiment in the restive Zulia state?
A big unknown is whether Venezuela's army we even fight for Chavez in large numbers. And I don't believe the US would sit back and allow Chavez to scramble his jets into Colombian territory.
Reyes' laptop demonstrates Chavez and especially Correa have some 'splaining to do: http://bellipotentdocs.blogspot.com/
How long before President Ortega in Nicaragua, who is also deeply saddened by the loss of Reyes, would use the conflict between Venezuela and Colombia as an opportunity to take the San Andres Province and erase the Esguerra-Bárcenas treaty. Uribe may be forced to relocate the troops placed in San Andres back to the mainland; giving Ortega a window of opportunity to reacquire the territory and really get in the good graces of his Financial Backer, Chavez.
Are there any major bottlenecks... that could be blocked...
There are bottlenecks and significant infrastructure. However, from what I understand, Venezuela could do pretty good job defending them against Colombia's capabilities.
Then again, that's just my assessment based on what I read in the media. I'm sure there are plenty of professional military capabilities analysts who could give more detailed answers. I'm better with the wider strategic than the specific capabilities questions.
And could troop movements further inflame anti-government sentiment in the restive Zulia state?
It could annoy the population of Zulia, but probably not lead to any significant backlash. I wouldn't expect any violent protests or movements to form, but there would probably be angry words by a few.
ow long before President Ortega in Nicaragua... would use the conflict between Venezuela and Colombia as an opportunity to take the San Andres Province and erase the Esguerra-Bárcenas treaty.
That's actually a scenario I've considered along with a possible naval confrontation between Colombia and Venezuela.
Part of the issue is that Nicaragua is more interested in waters around San Andres than in the islands themselves (it's about fishing and underwater energy resources, not the land). If Nicaragua or Venezuela do a military push for the islands and fail, Nicaragua would never get the compromise they would benefit from on dividing the territorial waters.
There will be no war. The purpose of Chavez's strong action on behalf of his hermano Correa was to assure that this never happens again. It won't.
The laptop is not nearly as relevatory as the Colombians (surprise) told us it was. Correa's committment is to help the border regions with better security (quite a lawless place at the moment) and to assist in any kind of "humanitarian and political agreements." There is not one iota of material assistance or anything that could be construed as such.
This is getting too far ahead--I think a more relevant question/speculation is under what conditions the crisis can be averted, e.g. what will each leader do.
Leftside -
Yes, if Ecuador learns its lesson, and stops sheltering the murderous thugs of FARC, this won't happen again.
I think a more relevant question/speculation is under what conditions the crisis can be averted
Possibly, but I think realizing that a military conflict harms both sides and helps neither would be a good starting point for working to avoid it.
The whole idea of regional war sounds more like local knockoff of Risk. Given the currency of the subject, someone could make a pretty penny if they did a three country version of the game with in detail military overlay to it. Given that intellectual property rights are regularly flaunted down here, I shouldn't be surprised if somebody does what I posit and really does call it "Risk SudAmerica" or something like that...
Re: Leftside's comments, I'd agree that chances are low that war will happen. Colombia's only interested in making sure that the FARC is marginalized or neutralized as a political/military force within its borders. Everyone recognizes the duplicity of Venezuela and Ecuador in tsk-tsking the war in Colombia all the while sheltering FARC combatants on their territory.
Still, I should think that VZ, EC and the FARC now realize that there's a price that can be paid for winking at (if not abetting) FARC presence in their countries. If Chavez (or Correa, for that matter), in his bluster thinks that he'll intimidate Colombia into not doing anything further about the FARC when they deem it necessary, he's mistaken.
Colombia's been at war now for years. Colombians know what it costs, what it entails, and how to make it; that's how and why they were able to whack Reyes over here in Ecuador. VZ and EC do not know any of the above and they'd be well advised to avoid finding out the nature of those costs.
The simplest thing for Chavez and Correa to do would be to throw the (Colombian) FARC out of their countries. Reyes wouldn't have died in Ecuador if the GOE hadn't let him in there to begin with (this presumes that the Ecuadorian military was competent enough to be aware of his presence, but perhaps I presume too much).
I hope that the two Presidents now realize that Colombia won't remain idle while the FARC thinks it can literally get away with murder and mayhem and skip across the border into welcoming VZ and EC arms. Chavez and Correa (and fatally, Reyes) made that mistake to begin with; I hope they don't make it again.
In one piece of good news, the Colombian government has said they will NOT send additional troops to the borders to counter the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan troop increases.
Usually, that would be a good step towards diffusing tensions, but in this case, it might just piss Chavez off that they aren't taking him seriously.
At the small unit level, Colombia's soldiers and marines are tough, motivated, battle-hardened veterans of years of constant combat, led by experienced officers. Experienced senior officers lead larger units where the empahsis is on mobility - after the guerillas overann those towns in the 90's. As shown this weekend, they have good intelligence, interservice coordination, command and control, are highly mobile, flexible, and can bring a lot of firepower to bear on an area.
Venezuela's army is having problems, since Chavez has been shifting from U.S. doctrines from squad to division level, to his ideas of "assymetric warfare". Makes for inconsistent training, confusion in the officer corps.
While Colombias' army has been cracking down on its past history of corruption, Venezuela's is going the other way with Senior Officers appointed to civilian posts, looting like crazy.
As a whole it is less cohesive than the Colombian army, has much less experience, and would probably get trounced by the Colombians.
Plus low key American help, could shut down Venezuela's communications, and a couple of Stealth bombers could probably knock out Venezuela's command and control, .
IMO there are no achievable strategic goals in such conflict, and a war could thus only start if either or both sides miscalculate. So, if there is one situation we should game, it is that of a serial screwup leading to both countries unwillingly blundering into war. Which is what the US military calls, I believe, Condition Charlie-Foxtrot.
Tambopaxi, you seem to be disagree with my argument that Colombia will not invade Venezuela or Ecuador again (thus achieving the strategic objective of both countries). Well, let me point you to a Daily Mail article that says that the US Govt. has delivered that very message to Uribe. The reason it because the US economy could not take a jolt from the resultant spike in oil prices.
FT has an article up suggesting that I'm wrong and that Venezuela doesn't have the capabilities they claim.
There are always the old punitive ground and air incursions, like the Israeli's would do in Lebanon before 82. Move in five miles across the border, try to batter your enemy as much as you can through airstrikes - ideally take out his air force.
Chavez probably doesn't have the capability.
Venezuela's military has oldish US equipment, supplemented by more recent buys from former Soviet Republics, including air defense systems and planes. The bulk of that stuff is either refitted from the 80's and 90's, more recent versions currently used by Russia or produced for export. Basically, hardware that was so effective for Saddam Hussein - twice.
Rumor has it, when the latest Russian fighters arrived, they had mock dogfights with the older F-16's in Venezuela's inventory, and all the Russian planes were "shot down"
..Looking at Boz's and Adam's latest posts, some many things are going on (how do you guys have the time do check all the news places??!!), I almost don't know where to comment.
I've seen what Boz saw, about FAC saying they're not sending any troops to the border (don't know about the Daily Mail article that Leftside saw) and this is consistent with what we're seeing/hearing here right now in Ecuador, i.e., no news of troop movements on Colombian side of the border. I should note that Correa's MinDefense Wellington Sandoval and Gustavo Larrea, who carries title of Minister of Internal/External Security (but has no staff to speak of), announced that Ecuador is sending 3,200 additional troops to the border provinces (there are roughly 12,000 military and cops, combined, in the six northern provinces already).
An Ecuadorian military consultant said this morning on local tv that just in Sucumbios province alone there are known to be 47 different FARC encampments and that Reyes had been moving from site to site on monthly basis, off and on, over the last four years. Without commenting on the veracity of these assertions, it'll be interesting to see if the Ecuadorians find any more FARC in the coming hours/days....
how do you guys have the time do check all the news places??!!
I'm just cool like that.
It's actually a combination of years of experience as a media analyst as well as the fact I'm not working full time at the moment.
Post a Comment