When I first heard the news yesterday, I thought "here we go again." However, it's looking like it might be true this time.
In the past five years, I've heard at least a dozen rounds of rumors announcing Tirofijo's death or critical illness. Usually, I've ignored them or brushed them off waiting for confirmation. Yesterday was the first time I've mentioned it on this blog.
Part of my decision to publish it this time comes from the other recent news from the FARC. I used to tell people that my analysis of the leadership suggested the FARC wouldn't wait long to announce Marulanda's death if it occurred. However, Raul Reyes' death on March 1 threw the FARC's leadership and communications ability into disarray. Without a clear communications structure, it is very possible the FARC are unsure how to tell their own combatants much less the world that they've lost yet another leader. The recent government successes in other areas also lend credibility to the claim that they have the proper intelligence on this issue.
The Colombian and international media seems in line with me. Most media are reporting Marulanda's death as fact, simply awaiting confirmation from the FARC. Rarely do these rumors make it into the mainstream media. Even ANNCOL, a media outlet close to the FARC, couldn't deny the rumors and claimed they would be the official location to post confirmation if it came from the FARC. People seem more certain now than in any time in recent years.
If Tirofijo turns up alive, it will be a blow to the government's credibility and further enhance his personal story. However, for now, I'm am working with the assumption of the government and the rest of the media. Tirofijo is likely dead and the FARC leadership has suffered numerous significant blows in the past few months which will change the the nature and structure of the entire organization.
UPDATE: FARC confirm Marulanda's death via Telesur (h/t: S.G. in the comments).
Contra-Cronkite
2 hours ago
33 comments:
He's dead.
http://www.noticias24.com/actualidad/?p=14563
Thanks.
From the leadership perspective, interesting that the statement came from Timochenko and not Cano or Marquez.
Tirofijo is likely dead and the FARC leadership has suffered numerous significant blows in the past few months which will change the the nature and structure of the entire organization.
The old man dying isn't exactly the same thing as Reyes and Rios getting taken out.
my condolences Justin.
Be strong
My condolences to your friends and family, anonymous. They've apparently been suffering the stillborn character of your brain for their entire lives.
Oh, and looky here. Looks like Boz's favorite Colombian source lies shamelessly.
Justin: You claim no sympathy for the FARC, and yet you are clearly bristling at the news of Tirofijo's death. What gives?
Justin: You claim no sympathy for the FARC, and yet you are clearly bristling at the news of Tirofijo's death.
Bristling? No, you see, among serious people, objective observations are actually valued. The point is that Tirofijo would have died regardless of the FARC's presently weak military position, so to try to mix up his death with the organization's military state of affairs is rather silly.
Over the years, FARC leaders have come and gone. Before there was Jacobo Arenas, Tirofijo's intellectual mentor. And before that, there were many many others. We don't yet have any reason to believe that Marulanda's death will alter the FARC's internal organization (or change its state of affairs more generally). My sense is that the Colombian state's newfound capacity to hit leadership targets --not Marulanda's death-- is the relevant sign of the FARC's present weakness.
"Bristling? No, you see, among serious people, objective observations are actually valued."
Another patented Delacour knee-slapper. It's a pity only Justin's pet goldfish and hamster truly appreciate his genius.
It's a pity only Justin's pet goldfish and hamster truly appreciate his genius.
It's an even greater pity that you can't debate for your life, Paul.
"It's an even greater pity that you can't debate for your life, Paul."
Well, I guess I do have to give it up to you for your profound insight that Marulanda would eventually die.
Well, I guess I do have to give it up to you for your profound insight that Marulanda would eventually die.
Which is another way of saying that you don't actually have anything to debate with me about but that you'll reflexively chime in with some nonsense anyway because, well, you're Paul.
He would have died, anyways, but he couldn't have died at a better time.
Three Secretariat members down in ome month (March), through different methods and circumstances.
They've all been replaced, but people within the ranks will begin to think if the fight is worth such a risk, and Marulanda's disappearance can't be good for morale.
"..and Marulanda's disappearance can't be good for morale."
Exactly, Colombiano, especially coming on the heels of all the other Uribe triumphs over the FARC. Justin is just doing his usual damage control for his buddies. That "negotiated settlement" he supports, where the communists get a piece of Colombia's democracy, is looking much less likely.
I understand your anger Justin. Projecting it is not good. Accept your lost. I am here with you.
Commie-tards like Justin have meltdowns b/c every "revolutionary" who goes KABLAMO! or gets a bullet in the head, means the "dream" really is ending.
Also explains the near pathologicial hatred of President Uribe. They can't stand him pounding the Commies to oblivion and being popular among Colomibians for it.
They can't stand him pounding the Commies to oblivion and being popular among Colomibians for it.
Hmmm, that sounds like something McCarthy would say. Go get 'em, Boli Boy. Kill them commies dead.
Actually, the reason I hate Uribe is that he's allied with the most murderous terrorists that exist in Latin America today. He's allied with monsters who have a history of cutting up people with chainsaws, for Heaven's sake. He's allied with people responsible for the murders of thousands of trade unionists.
The problem is not that Uribe goes after the FARC. If you're the FARC, you live by the sword and die by the sword.
But for Uribe to ally himself with the murderers of thousands of upon thousands of innocents is unpardonable. I hope that the skeletons in his closet will one day come back to haunt the Colombian president.
"..the reason I hate Uribe is that he's allied with the most murderous terrorists that exist in Latin America today."
He's sent scores of them to jail, and extradited the worst of them to the US just this past week. On the other hand, your master is the FARC's great ally and gives moving eulogies for them when Uribe blows them to kingdom come.
"But for Uribe to ally himself with the murderers of thousands of upon thousands of innocents is unpardonable. I hope that the skeletons in his closet will one day come back to haunt the Colombian president."
The overall murder rate under Uribe has declined magnificently under his stewardship. On the other hand, he's killed scores of your communist pals. Your master has undeniably allied himself with the worst monsters, yet you don't even blink an eye because they share your discredited, hideous ideology. You're a clown, Justin. Get a job and do something decent with your life. We don't need you poisoning young people with your idiocies.
He's sent scores of them to jail, and extradited the worst of them to the US just this past week.
Yeah, you moron. He did that so they wouldn't narc his ass out for all his complicity with them going way back into the 1980s. What a little angel that Uribe is!
So, from Justin's lack of comment on the other 90% of Paul's post, we may conclude that Justin wholeheartedly agrees with it.
"He did that so they wouldn't narc his ass out for all his complicity with them going way back into the 1980s. What a little angel that Uribe is!"
Keep clinging to that raft. Did they go to jail in the first place so they wouldn't "narc his ass out," as you less than eloquently put it? They had plenty of time to do that, and still could, if they had anything. Meanwhile, you're still licking the blood off Chavez's boots.
Justin: A staple of your rhetoric is that there is no credible evidence linking Chavez to the FARC. Is there more credible evidence to impugn Uribe in this matter?
They had plenty of time to do that, and still could, if they had anything.
Ah yes, of course Uncle Sam is going to provide these paracos the opportunity to implicate his man in Bogotá. No doubt Uncle Sam wants to get to the bottom of Uribe's dirty deeds.
You're a genius, Paul.
Now that I have the ear of such a wise man, I'll be waiting for some new pearls of wisdom with regard to the following question. Why would the Colombian human rights lawyers be so upset about the extradition if the paracos didn't have more goods on Uribe's people?
"Why would the Colombian human rights lawyers be so upset about the extradition if the paracos didn't have more goods on Uribe's people?"
Lots of reasons. They lost their dog and pony show they controlled. They want to "get" Uribe. They listen to paranoid knuckleheads like you.
They lost their dog and pony show they controlled.
In other words, the paracos had more goods on Uribe. You know it. I know it. So why kid around?
Actually, the reason I hate Uribe is that he's allied with the most murderous terrorists that exist in Latin America today. He's allied with monsters who have a history of cutting up people with chainsaws, for Heaven's sake. He's allied with people responsible for the murders of thousands of trade unionists.
Wow, lets see,starting with
1. fact that we have highly credible GOTCHA! evidence of Chavez DIRECTLY providing FARC weapons, money and cover. Openly colluding w/top FARC Secretariate. Obviously much more than what is out there w/Uribe and Paras.
2. Uribe allies/associates, officials in Colombia have links to Paras. uribe held responsible. Outside of FARC laptop, very credible Western media have noted the close ties and collaboration of top Venezuelan civilian military officers with FARC, including weapons, training, assistance w/ drug dealing. Chavez underlings guilty way before 2008. By that standard Chavez is "allied" with FARC, b/c of actions of his buddies.
3. FARC is vicious Communist Army, , guilty of thousands of summary executions, thousands of kindappings, terrorism against elected officials and civilians, indiscriminate land mine use, forced abduction and brainwashing of minors, operate as a drug syndicate. Undisputedly do many of the nasty things Paras do.
4. To paraphrase Delacour, Chavez has deliberately chosen to "ally himself with the murderers of thousands of upon thousands of innocents". Except Justin doesn't think that is "unpardonable."
5. And that is simply viewing the FARC as another criminal gang, which they are not. They are a cohesive, revolutionary Marxist-Leninist movement with decades in the field. They have a dedicated core of cadres - products of 3 and even 4 generations of brainwashing- who in the past have survived a "downsizings. Their aim, their dynamic you could say is to overthrow Colombias elected government, and replace it with a Totalitarian system. The Paras on the other hand are a loose affiliation of gangsters, mercenaries, landowner militias, drug enforcers and other characters. They are more interested in the State letting them do "gangster stuff" without getting caught. Which means they represent less of a universal threat to Colombia's government, barring a repeat of the Medellin cartel scenario of the 80's.
6. The very important fact that the FARC is one of the main reasons the Paras i. grew in the 90's and ii.became politicized. Get rid of the FARC and you eliminate an important source of the circle of violence. Then you deal with containing the drug dealing and gangsters as merely law enforcement issues.
7. Good percentage of Colombians despise the FARC. Even in remote areas accustomed to murderous family feuds and political mass murder, the FARC still manage to stand out. Given a choice of murderous thugs, and murderous thugs w/fanatical ideology they go for murderous thugs.
IN THE END, Chavez is guilty not only of supporting a bunch of killers, but a bunch of killers who want to destroy Democratic institutions of Colombia.
Boli,
"Good percentage of Colombians despise the FARC. Even in remote areas accustomed to murderous family feuds and political mass murder, the FARC still manage to stand out. Given a choice of murderous thugs, and murderous thugs w/fanatical ideology they go for murderous thugs. "
Yep, my wife lived in a lower middle-class neighborhood in Colombia her entire life and never met a FARC or ELN supporter. She did, however, have 2 of her relatives kidnapped by guerillas and knew other people who had same. She's no fan of the paras, but doesn't reserve the same hatred for them she does the FARC.
"Chavez is guilty not only of supporting a bunch of killers, but a bunch of killers who want to destroy Democratic institutions of Colombia."
Which only goes to expose the dishonest, pathetic, clown and Chavez bootlicker Justin.
1. fact that we have highly credible GOTCHA! evidence of Chavez DIRECTLY providing FARC weapons, money and cover.
Actually, you have no such evidence. Even if we were to accept the laptops as evidence (which no court would), all you have is some supposed emails between FARC leaders, not any communications from the Venezuelan government itself.
Obviously much more than what is out there w/Uribe and Paras.
Are you fuckin' kidding me, Boli Boy? Yes, you are kidding me because you yourself have already admitted that Uribe has long ties to paramilitarism. Uribe was the founder of Antioquia's Convivir program, for Heaven's sake. It is well understood that Convivir facilitated the rise of paramilitarism. Uribe has been in bed with the paramilitaries most of political carreer. Even the Washington Post published evidence indicating that paramilitaries used Uribe's ranch to plan assassinations. The goods on Uribe are cut and dry, dude. The man is up to his ears in the blood of his fellow countrymen.
And by the way, Boli Boy, if you think paramiltaries aren't a threat to democratic institutions, you're a moron. You don't have sound democratic institutions when paramilitaries kill and threaten journalists with impunity and thereby stifle free speech. You don't have sound democratic institutions when paramilitaries kill trade unionists with impunity and thereby stifle the right to the freedom of association.
Rights to free speech and the freedom of association are bedrock democratic institutions, Boli Boy. If you don't have them, you don't have democracy.
I hate to break this to you, but Colombia is not a democracy. Democracies don't allow murderous right-wing vigilantes to go around maiming as they please.
"Uribe was the founder of Antioquia's Convivir program, for Heaven's sake. It is well understood that Convivir facilitated the rise of paramilitarism."
And the "facilitated the rise" phrase
is how dishonest scumbags like Justin
pour all the para blood onto Uribe. Convivir started out as a way to protect from Justin's FARC buddies. It grew into a monster, but that doesn't mean Uribe was behind it all. Justin knows that, he just hates the fact that Uribe has killed so many of his terrorist friends over the years.
"Democracies don't allow murderous right-wing vigilantes to go around maiming as they please."
Last I checked, the head right-wing vigilantes were in jail/extradited to the US and a large percentage of the rank and file have disarmed. The overall murder rate has dropped by over 60% since Uribe took office.
Hey, Justin, what's the murder rate
trend during your master's reign in Venezuela?
Last I checked, the head right-wing vigilantes were in jail/extradited to the US
And you can call me dishonest, Paul? Ever heard of the Black Eagles, genius? You know, the ones who've been slaughtering trade unionists all year, despite the fact that Uribe continues to deny their existence.
Give me a break, Paul.
"And you can call me dishonest, Paul? Ever heard of the Black Eagles, genius?"
I never claimed every single para laid down his arms, just that their ranks have been substantially reduced under Uribe. The statistics bear that out despite the fact that Colombia is a country under attack by your Marxist terrorist buddies. Venezuela is at peace, flush with petrodollars, and yet violence is getting worse in your master's fiefdom. What's your excuse for that?
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