The transition and Latin America

A week from today, assuming no Florida 2000 style disaster, we'll have a new president-elect who will fully begin the transition process. Whether Obama or McCain win, this means getting policy papers into shape and finding the right people to put into positions to implement those policies. Assuming an Obama win, this could mean major shifts at some agencies. The transition process has already begun in some ways and will last months into the new administration.

I've been asked what this means for Latin America, particularly with an Obama win. The point of this post is not about the policy but about the nuts and bolts of the bureaucracy. The transition has an extra challenge for the Western Hemisphere in that the new appointees will need to hit the ground running in order to prepare for the Summit of the Americas in April 2009.

The two big positions for Latin America policy are NSC Director for the Americas, and Assistant Secretary of State for the Western Hemisphere. A third potential top position would be a Special Envoy for the Western Hemisphere, which Obama has promised he will name if he is elected. An additional possibility is that someone with a long history of focusing on Latin America gets a higher post, say head of the NSC or Secretary of State.

Below is a partial list of positions that focus on the Western Hemisphere. Where possible, I've included the current holder of that position and some commentary (although I avoid speculating about who will get the new jobs). There are actually dozens of positions that could potentially be filled by new appointees. The new president could also choose to create new positions or eliminate others, although I doubt a major restructuring will take place.

National Security Council Director for the Western Hemisphere: Dan Fisk

The person in this position will be based near the White House and will be the person overseeing much of the policy. He or she will have the president's ear for security crises in the region and oversee long term strategies that match the president's agenda. Each president can organize the NSC a bit differently, but it usually has subregional positions for Central America, Andes, Southern Cone and the Caribbean. Those positions are filled by a variety of career civilians from various agencies, military analysts and political appointees.

Special Envoy for the Western Hemisphere: Currently unoccupied.

Obama has promised to restart this position if elected president. If he does, he or she will likely become the main public spokesperson for the administration's Latin America policy.

Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere: Tom Shannon

This position could be a career or a political appointee. Prior to Shannon, the Bush administration had named Otto Reich (under recess appointment) and Roger Noriega to this position, both of whom were political appointees with fairly conservative ideologies. Shannon is a career appointee and could potentially stay on in an Obama administration. However, he's been in the position for three years already.

Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for WHA: Craig Kelly

Career appointee. He was named just over a year ago, replacing Charles Shapiro, who is now coordinating Western Hemisphere trade issues at State. It’s quite possible he’ll remain in this position. There are also DAS's for each of the sub-regions in the hemisphere, all career officials as far as I can tell.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Western Hemisphere: Steve Johnson

This post should be fairly important being that it's the top political appointee working on defense issues in the hemisphere. From a bureaucratic standpoint, it has significant influence. However, in the media and public eye, it often seems to fly under the radar. Steve Johnson will not likely stick around for an Obama administration, so this position will have someone new.

Deputy Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Western Hemisphere, Brian O'Neill,

With the current economic crisis, it's worth highlighting the fact Treasury has an official to deal specifically with the hemisphere.

Under Secretary for International Trade at Dept of Commerce: Chris Padilla

While it's not a specific Latin America portfolio, Padilla and Secretary Gutierrez have both placed a significant focus on Latin America. As one colleague told me, it's possible (perhaps likely) that the next administration nominates people with a greater focus on Asia and less focus on the hemisphere. If that's the case, it would be good for the next administration to make sure someone at Commerce has Latin America as a top issue in their portfolio.

US Trade Representative: Susan Schwab

Deputy USTR: John Veroneau

With lingering trade issues in the hemisphere including the pending Colombia and Panama FTA's, this post will be important for getting the votes, potentially renegotiating the deals, or possibly even pushing the issue off to the side. Both Schwab and Veroneau, like Padilla, have portfolios well beyond Latin America, but have spent a significant amount of time on the trade deals in the region.

Office of Foreign Assets Control: Adam Szubin.

OFAC is the bureaucracy that enforces the Cuba embargo, so it's worth noting.

DEA: Michele M. Leonhar

ONDCP ("Drug Czar"): John Walters

Obviously drug policy has a major impact on US policy in the hemisphere, so these two positions are important. If I have one recommendation to make in this entire post (and I've heard this from others as well), it's that the ONDCP should be less political.

Southcom Commander, Admiral James Stavridis
Stavridis has been in his post for two years, meaning that he will probably rotate out in the next year or so. The position will certainly go to a serving four star officer or a three star who will be promoted upon receiving the position. Two big questions will be "What sort of Latin America experience does the person have (if any)?" and "What branch of the military?" Stavridis was the first Navy admiral appointed to the position.

Civilian Deputy to the Southcom Commander: Ambassador Paul Trivelli

The civilian deputy position has never been a big deal in terms of Latin America policy, but it can and should become one. In the newly formed AFRICOM, the civilian deputy has significant responsibility and there are signs Southcom will move in a similar direction.

Northcom commander: General Victor Renuart

Canada and Mexico fall under Northcom in the US military structure (although Mexico tends to deal directly with the Pentagon). Also, most combatant command maps show Cuba actually falling under Northcom (although Southcom has a map with Cuba in their AOR, it's a policy debate for another day).

I could go on about the military bureaucracy (the general in JSJ5 WH or the commanders of USARSO, SOCSouth, SouthAF, and 4th fleet for example), but those will occur on the usual military rotation schedule and, while important to implementing policy in the hemisphere, really won't signal major shifts in terms of the president's agenda.

Mission Manager for Cuba and Venezuela, Director of National Intelligence: Tim Langford (?)

The Bush administration made a big deal announcing a new intelligence coordinator for Cuba and Venezuela back in 2006, naming Norm Bailey, and then removing Norm Bailey. Since then, that position has been quietly managed and I believe Tim Langford is the person in charge. It will be interesting to see if an Obama administration even keeps this position or if it goes away.

Assistant Administrator for Latin America, USAID: Jose Cardenas

There are rumors that an Obama administration or the Congress could really shake up USAID. Due to the recent allegations of politicization of USAID's work in Latin America, a public shift in this organization is likely in my opinion.

Millennium Challenge Corporation CEO: John Danilovich

The MCC has programs in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Paraguay, Peru and Bolivia are also being considered for funding. This program is viewed as small but successful and it will be important to see whether a new president continues forward, expands it or takes it in a different direction.

Assistant Secretary for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), DHS: Julie Myers

I don't know whether there is anyone specifically at ICE who handles Western Hemisphere issues, but the organization as a whole has a major impact on our relations with the region. It controls our borders and it is also partially responsible for deportations, which are big stories in the region.

Director, Citzenship and Immigration Services, DHS: Jonathan Scharfen

CIS will be measured on their approach toward immigration and if they are able to successfully reduce backlogs in the legal immigration system.

Permanent Representative to the OAS, Hector Morales (p)

This position is important to showing the commitment of the US to the OAS as an institution.

Ambassador to Mexico, Tony Garza (p)

Ambassador to Colombia William Brownfield (c)
Ambassador to Venezuela, Patrick Duddy (c)
Ambassador to Brazil, Clifford Sobel (p)

Interest section head in Cuba, Jonathan Farrar (c)

I only name a few ambassadors to key countries in the hemisphere. Clearly, all of the ambassador posts carry weight. It will be important to see the political/career ratio as well as whether ambassador with significant regional experience are named.

Are there any positions I'm missing that are key to Western Hemisphere? Is there an Assistant Secretary for Western Hemisphere in any of the other cabinet agencies? Let me know and I'll add them. This post is a work in progress. I'll try to update a few months into the new administration to see who was named and what has changed.