Bloggings by boz

Happy New Year's Eve!!!

For those who participate or read the comments section on this blog, please see the first comment on this post. For those who don't read the comments, don't worry about it.

AP reports that Tijuana will end up with 843 murders this year. Also:

Tijuana's murder rate of about 56 per 100,000 is still below that of the deadliest U.S. city: New Orleans, which had about 95 killings per 100,000 inhabitants in 2007.

Being that Mexico is at war with the cartels and the cartels are at war with each other, that doesn't say much for New Orleans. After all, I made Mexico's violence one of the top stories in the region this year.

Then again, with Caracas estimated at 130 murders per 100,000, the Venezuelan capital is twice as violent as Tijuana.

Let me repeat that: Venezuela's capital is twice as violent as Tijuana.

I know I've mentioned this before, but it would be worthwhile for media and analysts to look beyond the circus that is Venezuelan politics and pay attention to one of the most violent conflicts in the hemisphere going almost unnoticed.

Today's WSJ has an article profiling Colombian President Uribe and discussing the potential third term. I thought this description was a good one:

There are two sides to Mr. Uribe. He is a technocrat who studied at Harvard and Oxford and works on his English by watching the BBC every morning as he rides his stationary bike. In 2005, Jeffrey Immelt, the chief executive officer of General Electric Co., visited Colombia after hearing about its turnaround under Mr. Uribe. After a two-hour meeting with the president, Mr. Immelt told associates: "Now that is a chief executive."

The other side comes from being raised in a rural culture of powerful landowners, horses and guns. Mr. Uribe sometimes views the world in black and white, such as in his treatment of Carlos Lozano, who edits the weekly Communist Party newspaper La Voz. On several occasions, Mr. Uribe has publicly attacked the editor as a FARC supporter -- dangerous words in a nation where right-wing death squads have killed thousands of leftists. After each outburst, says Mr. Lozano, Vice President Santos "calls to say the president lost his temper, is sorry about what he said, and is increasing my bodyguards and the strength of the bulletproofing on my car." Mr. Santos confirmed that account.

The constant conflict between Uribe the modern executive and Uribe the caudillo is a useful way to understand his personality. That tension could become worse if Uribe's approval rating falls further. His caudillo side doesn't deal well with dissent.

In no particular order, here are my top 10 storylines from Latin America and the Caribbean in 2008. I expect there will be controversy and disagreements with what I wrote here (and what I left off), which is part of the fun.

1. Lugo election. Six decades of Colorado Party rule ended democratically and without violence. This was not the highest profile story of the year, but it was a moment of great significance for Paraguayan history and a bright spot in a tough year.


2. Increasing Mexico violence. The levels of violent crime in Latin America have skyrocketed in a number of countries, but in few places has the crime been as visible as Mexico. Mexico's government is in an all out war against the drug cartels, even as the cartels battle each other for control. While Calderon has maintained relative support up through now, there is a level of pessimism within Mexico that is cause for concern.


3. Volatile commodities. The global financial crisis at the end of this year is only part of Latin America's story (it could become next year's story). I think the story of this year was the rise and fall of commodity prices. Over the course of this year, rising food and fuel prices led to protests in a number of countries, particularly in Central America, and the removal of Haiti's prime minister. The rise of commodity prices also led to record high revenues for Chile, Peru, Brazil, Ecuador and Venezuela followed by a crash. In Argentina, the high commodity prices meant protests as the government and farmers fought over revenues, harming the country's chance to take full advantage of a boom.


4. Morales and opposition governors win recall elections. There were a lot of points in Bolivian politics that I could have picked this year. I think for a while Bolivia was closer to collapse than many people realized. Yet, on several occasions, Morales pulled through and ended up stronger than he started. Winning the recall election was one such moment, although the concurrent win by opposition governors meant the political stalemate continued. Managing to get the opposition to compromise on the constitution and set up the vote for early next year was another significant win for the government.


5. Brazil/Lula on the rise. Lula ends to year with over 80% approval domestically. Internationally, Brazil was a diplomatic force in the Doha negotiations, WTO, G-20, and various Latin American regional organizations. Both Brazil and Lula end the year in a much stronger position than they began.


6. Blows to the FARC. For over 40 years, not a single member of the FARC secretariat had been killed while fighting. That changed this year. The deaths of Raul Reyes, Ivan Rios and Manuel Marulanda early in 2008, all by different causes, shook the FARC's organization. The capture of Reyes', Rios' and others' laptops, which contained significant information about FARC activities and finances, were a major intelligence and diplomatic blow and served to greatly disrupt the organization's communications. That would come back to haunt the FARC a few months later as Colombian forces exploited those communications gaps to fool the FARC (without firing a single shot) into releasing over a dozen high profile hostages including Ingrid Betancourt and three American contractors. There were various other desertions, deaths and arrests that continued to break down the FARC's "middle management" and the group as a whole continued to decline to half its previous numbers. The FARC enter 2009 in its weakest position in over 15 years.


7. Correa's strong year. Considering Ecuador's recent political history, it would have been an achievement for President Correa to simply remain in office at the end of the year. Correa has done much better than that. He won an early mandate to change the constitution, won most of the seats at the assembly, kicked out the legislature, won a referendum on the new constitution and ends the year well above 50% approval with another election scheduled for early next year that he appears likely to win. While there remain some pockets of opposition, particularly in Guayaquil, no national-level opposition remains to challenge the president at the moment. The long-term impact of Correa's various political and economic moves are certainly debatable, but being president of Ecuador is a job that requires winning short term victories and Correa has done just that.


8. Hurricanes hit the Caribbean. Hurricanes are an annual occurrence, but for a while this summer, it felt like every storm was making a direct line for one Caribbean island or another, leaving a massive amount of destruction. Cuba, Haiti and Turks and Caicos took particularly hard blows.
   


9. UNASUR, SADC, ALBA. It's unclear whether the new subregional organizations in Latin America and the Caribbean will become relevant, but the formation and strengthening of them certainly created news this year. With an OAS election and the Summit of the Americas next year, there are a number of competing and overlapping organizations that will be looking for purpose and influence.


10. Obama's election. For a year in which the US influence allegedly declined in Latin America, few stories took up as much attention of the region's media and politicians as the election up north and the consequences it would have on US policy in the region.

My top 10 stories in 2008 should automatically publish around noon today. Feel free to use this thread for comments and complaints.

A new poll released yesterday by the Universidad Tecnologica has Funes 46%, Avila 29% in the upcoming elections in El Salvador. The FMLN also continues to lead in local and legislative election numbers.

This poll simply adds to other recent polls showing a significant lead for the FMLN across the board.

BBC:

Three people listed as "disappeared" in Chile during General Augusto Pinochet's military rule have been found or died in other circumstances, it has emerged. Their names surfaced as investigators looked into a previous non-victim who has lived in Argentina for 35 years.

Gen Pinochet's supporters have long said reports of the missing, officially put at more than 1,183, are false. President Michelle Bachelet, who was detained the 1970s, said these cases must not cast doubt on Chile's missing.

Also read the Memory in Latin America Blog and El Pais.

It's a sad fact that some people will attempt to exploit tragedy for their own gain, whether it's people taking advantage of Chile's disappeared, various scams after 9/11 in the US or the most recent spam letter I got from someone in Guinea trying to transfer money after their coup last week.

The fact a few individuals went into hiding to exploit the tragedy does not make the rights abuses of the Pinochet era any less tragic.

There are a small group of people in Chile who deny that those abuses ever occurred and these isolated incidents will simply reinforce their views. However, I think it's a very small minority and not representative of Chilean society.

The evidence and the testimony collected over the past few decades show that Pinochet's regime killed, tortured and disappeared thousands. The recent news of false cases will end up being a minor footnote in historical context.

Bloomberg (and BBC):

Chavez said late yesterday he instructed all of his Cabinet members to work on ways to save money and had appointed a media committee to make announcements about economic plans.

"We guarantee the social investment and current spending," Chavez said in a phone call to state television. "We’re preparing a series of measures and initiatives to keep the crisis from whipping us."

If oil doesn't increase over the next six months (and I think it might), Venezuela is going to face a very tough year. Their budget can handle a few months of low oil prices, but persistent low prices (below $40) over the entire year would force the government to make some very politically unpopular decisions.

Previous post here, with my first two points remaining very relevant for any analysis.

News is really slow in Latin America this time of year. Comments are open below.

Many international oil traders are doubtful that OPEC will soon cut the amount of oil it has promised during the last two meetings. After all, if you're a country facing a severe budget crisis and in need of funds, cutting the amount of oil produced is a tough strategy.

Ecuadoran President Correa has decided to comply in a very public way, announcing that the oil production by the private Italian company Agip will be completely cut off in Ecuador. Is it the best long term financial and development move? Probably not. However, this move will put Ecuador closer to compliance than other OPEC countries and gives Correa a chance to take a shot at a foreign company that will likely prove domestically popular. He's turned a potential financial loss into a minor political win.

Various sources including Chile's La Tercera reported today that OAS Secretary General Insulza will resign on January 10 to run for president of Chile. He will face a tough primary battle against former president Eduardo Frei and, if he wins, an even tougher race against Sebastian Piñera.

For the hemisphere, Insulza's resignation also sets up a diplomatic battle over his successor at the OAS. Former Panama President Arístides Royo has had his name floated and appears to have early backing of the US. Media sources today claimed Venezuelan President Chavez will soon float a name to compete against Royo. Additionally, some Chilean politicians have said they believe Insulza should be replaced by a Chilean, making former President Ricardo Lagos another potential candidate for the position.

Those are all early rumors from unnamed sources and the potential candidates could quickly change once Insulza's resignation is official.

Merry Christmas everyone. Hope Santa got you everything you wanted.

In early November, Argentine opposition leader Elisa Carrio claimed that she had information about the Kirchner's involvement in corruption that she was handing over to authorities.

Yesterday, prosecutors announced they had enough information to open an official investigation on former President Nestor Kirchner and two former ministers in his cabinet. Most of the corruption allegations revolve around construction and energy contracts that may have been given preferences in exchange for bribes. The prosecutors say they will also investigate a contract signed between Kirchner and Venezuelan President Chavez in 2004.

Considering the source of the information, many people will claim these allegations are politicized. With the situation in Argentina as it is, it's almost impossible to keep politics out of these allegations. Hopefully the Argentine judicial system will present the evidence publicly, give Kirchner a chance to defend himself, and deal with this issue in as fair a way as possible.

More information from Clarin and La Nacion.

AP:

President Tony Saca announced Tuesday he will withdraw Salvadoran troops from Iraq after Dec. 31, pulling out the only remaining soldiers from Latin America.

Five of El Salvador's soldiers have been killed and more than 20 have been wounded since the country deployed troops there in 2003. It currently has 200 soldiers based near the southeastern Shiite city of Kut.

Also:

In the five years that Salvadoran soldiers have been in Iraq, they have completed 350 health, education and infrastructure projects that benefited an estimated 7 million Iraqis.

While El Salvador is the last Latin American country to leave the coalition, a large unknown number of contractors from Latin America, particularly Chile, Peru and Colombia, remain in various jobs over in Iraq.

CID-Gallup released the approval numbers for all of Central America's presidents yesterday.

Colom (Guatemala): 48%
Arias: (Costa Rica): 44%
Fernandez (Dominican Republic): 38%
Saca (El Salvador): 35%
Torrijos (Panama): 26%
Zelaya (Honduras): 25%
Ortega (Nicaragua): 22%

All of the presidents, regardless of ideology, are having a tough time maintaining popular support. Deteriorating economic and security conditions throughout 2008 have definitely played a major role in the politics of the region.

Over the next few weeks I'll be working on "Top Stories of 2008" and "Upcoming in 2009" posts. Feel free to leave a comment ahead of time on those topics or anything else.

Nicolas Sarkozy visited Brazil this weekend in his capacity as French president as well as rotating EU president.

Brazil got:

• Support from France to have a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
• An agreement with the EU to define a common position at the G-20 regarding the financial crisis.
• Technology transfer agreement for 50 helicopters, improved night vision capability, four conventional submarines and a nuclear submarine.

Brazil gave:

• A reiterated statement that they'll cut climate change gases?

There is little doubt that Brazil got the better end of that meeting. The EU and France are playing long, hoping that the "strategic alliance" with Brazil yields gains over time. For today, it's a big victory for Lula.

Washington Post:

The decapitated bodies of 12 men were discovered early Sunday scattered in and around a state capital in southern Mexico. Nine of the headless corpses were strewn along a busy street, where the Guerrero state governor later appeared for a religious procession. Authorities said some of the victims were Mexican army soldiers....

...Near some of the decapitated remains, authorities found a sign that read: "For every one of mine that you kill, I will kill 10." Dumping heads and bodies in public view is becoming a common tactic as the cartels wage a campaign of narco-terrorism.

It turns out a number of them were members of the Mexican military.

Today's LA Times focused on Mexico's inability to shut down money laundering operations.

In the Mexican government's bloody, 2-year-old war on drug traffickers, one component of the trade remains largely untouched: money laundering. The network that helps turn ill-gotten gains into legal tender is a crucial linchpin that enables traffickers to live large, expand their operations deep into the U.S., pay off cops and politicians and buy increasingly sophisticated weaponry....

...Estimates vary widely, but as much as $20 billion is laundered and stays in Mexico annually, with up to four times that amount continuing to other destinations, experts and Mexican officials say....

...Banking controls are notoriously lax in Mexico, making it easier for money to be wired or deposited into accounts, then spent on goods or services. All-cash transactions are common, especially for big-ticket items such as mansions, and Hummers and armored BMWs, and to pay the legions who work for the drug mafias. The money also is increasingly being sunk into artwork, gems, gold and commodities.

Several experts blame the inability for Mexican authorities to seize property of drug traffickers.

Ecuador's El Comercio had an excellent article yesterday outlining the sharp increase in spending on military arms and equipment under President Correa. In two years, Correa has more than doubled the weapons purchases compared to the previous three administrations. This year, weapons purchases were about two thirds of a nearly one billion dollar military budget.

There are two ways to view the increased military spending, both of them partially correct:

1. Ecuador has legitimate security needs, particularly in securing the border with Colombia. Upgrading and replacing aging equipment is necessary.
2. Correa sees the military as a political actor and wants to keep them happy and out of the country's politics. Increased military spending is one way of doing that.

Good news this afternoon as the FARC released a statement announcing the upcoming release of six hostages including Alan Jara, the former governor of Meta who has been held for eight years.

Unfortunately, bad news preceded the announcement as 10 people were kidnapped yesterday evening in Meta, most likely by the FARC.

Let's hope for the safe release of all of these hostages soon.

A follow up to the questions in this post and these answers about the multilateral meetings in Brazil this week.

#1: It was an accomplishment that all of these countries agreed to meet again. The 33 nations didn't really move forward on any significant agenda items. However, the possibility of creating the first full regional group and creating the political space for future integration was a success for the group. Whether the new organization goes anywhere in future meetings is the new question.

#2: Brazil's legislature voted to allow Venezuela to join Mercosur. It's significant in that it adds a new actor with a very different economic profile to the group. This will likely make it even more difficult to define the common tariff and trade policies that the group was formed to resolve.

#3: What does the Rio Group do? Outside of bringing on Cuba, they couldn't figure it out either. Some reports appear to indicate the Rio Group may be folded into the larger group of 33 Latin American and Caribbean nations (which makes sense, in my opinion). They are all scheduled to meet again in Mexico

#7: On the smaller bilateral disputes, Brazil did face some pressure on their tensions with Ecuador and Paraguay, but handled it professionally in a way that kept the meetings on track. On the other hand, Brazil and Venezuela were very friendly including Brazil allowing the entry to Mercosur mentioned above. Uruguay definitely won the best of their dispute with Argentina by blocking Nestor Kirchner's candidacy for UNASUR's president. Not having Uribe or Garcia around meant issues with those countries were barely discussed.

#8: Ecuador criticized the Bank of the South (and Brazil) for failing to move faster and called for more financial integration leading to a region that doesn't use the dollar. However, the idea seemed to get limited traction. Paraguay announced they fully backed Ecuador (Lugo has talked about claiming his country's debt "illegal"), but other countries mostly stayed away.

#9: In spite of several articles highlighting tensions between Brazil and other countries, Brazil gets a lot of credit for bringing all of the countries together and keeping the meetings on track. Overall, it was a major success for a country that is increasingly the region's leader.

More coverage from AP, Economist, El Pais, Ben Gedan.

NYT (also AP):

With the commanders of Brazil’s army, navy and air force in attendance, Mr. da Silva said in a speech here that Brazil, despite its pacifist history, needed a stronger defense against potential aggression if it was to continue on the road to becoming a global power.

The new strategic vision, more than a year in the making, calls for Brazil to invest more in military technology, including satellites, and to build a nuclear-powered submarine fleet that would be used to protect territorial waters and Brazil’s deepwater oil platforms. The proposal also calls for an expansion of the armed forces to protect the country’s Amazon borders and for retraining troops so they are capable of rapid-strike, guerrilla-style warfare.

At first glance, this looks like a smart document that thinks about Brazil's strategic needs and begins transforming the military and industrial base to meet those needs. In particular, Brazil is focused on border security and territorial control from land, sea, air and space. Realistically, there are nearly no mentions of concerns about threats from other nation-states, but Brazil is obviously concerned about illegal non-state actors and ungoverned spaces in and near their territory.

Update: More thoughts, particularly on the mandatory military service issue, from AlterDestiny.

Both BBC and Spain's El Pais have articles on the drug cartel battles occurring on the Mexico-Guatemala border.

Cartels are buying or forcing their way onto land just inside Guatemala where they are able to maintain operations and launder money. The Guatemalan government has admitted that the cartels control a significant portion of the territory along the border.

Along the border, cartels are fighting each other for territory. Guatemala has deployed hundreds of soldiers to the border to fight the cartels, but it's not particularly effective at the moment.

Comments? Questions? The usual complaints? Leave them in the comments below.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution earlier this week that increased the authority for those combating piracy off the coast of Somalia. In particular, the US views the resolution as allowing for raids against the pirates' land bases.

China announced that it may send a naval presence to the Gulf of Aden to participate with the quasi-coalition of US, European, Russian and Indian ships that are currently battling the pirates. China's announcement is one of the most significant signals sent in recent years about their growing military power. Equally significant, the US and others reacted by welcoming and encouraging China's offer.

As far as I've read, no Latin American or Caribbean countries are yet contributing to the effort. Sure, it's really far away and doesn't affect Latin America's shipping lanes, but it's also a chance to cooperate with the US, Russia and China at the same time fighting pirates. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela? I'm wondering if any of them will step up to participate.

AP:

Latin American nations should expel U.S. ambassadors until the United States lifts its embargo on Cuba, Bolivian President Evo Morales said Wednesday.

It's easy to ask everyone else to kick out their ambassador after Bolivia has already done so for a different reason. None of the countries attending seemed to respond affirmatively.

If President Obama offers to send a new ambassador to Bolivia to restore diplomatic relations before he makes changes to Cuba policy, will Morales keep his word and shun the new ambassador or will he go against his own recommendation? I think we'll find out the answer to that in a few months.

NYT:

Mr. da Silva did his part to upstage the Summit of the Americas, even sending planes from Brazil’s air force to ensure the presence here of presidents from poorer countries in Central America and the Caribbean. President Alan García of Peru and President Álvaro Uribe of Colombia were the only heads of state who did not attend. Vice President Francisco Santos of Colombia said that Mr. Uribe, a staunch American ally, stayed home to cope with the aftermath of deadly floods.

Uribe's excuse for not attending was initially believable. There are devastating floods affecting parts of Colombia and Uribe is the sort of micro-managing president who would want to lead the relief efforts.

Then, at 11:30 last night, Uribe signed a decree to call Congress into session and push forward the reelection debate. Granted, there has been significant political pressure on him this week to move that debate forward and give an answer one way or another, but to skip the multilateral summit and use that time to focus on reelection was poor regional politics and should be seen as an insult by the other leaders in the region who are meeting in Brazil.

That said, the outcome wasn't quite what Uribe probably hoped for. Colombia's lower house met around midnight last night and passed a bill allowing Uribe to run for president again... in 2014. There remain a few political options to allow a 2010 run, but the compromise of allowing him to take a term off and run in 2014 seems to be gaining ground.

A followup to the post below.

#2: Mercosur may not have been able to work out their various common tariff problems, but they did agree to give Bolivian goods special preference to counteract the decision by the US to not renew ATPDEA benefits. That was significant.

#3: Other than incorporating Cuba, the Rio Group didn't seem to do anything. Compared to Mercosur and Unasur, both of which have real agendas, the Rio Group was a bit of an empty show. The biggest news may not have come from the group but from the improving bilateral relations between Mexico and Cuba.

#4: UNASUR decided to put off the leadership decision until April. Uruguay's veto held over pressure from the Kirchner allies.

#5: UNASUR announced support for Bolivia's government and support for the report, but didn't go much beyond that. The organization also announced support for Colombia's fight against the FARC and other illegal armed groups, which I hadn't realized was on the agenda.

#6: UNASUR officially voted on the creation of the South American Defense Council. A meeting in Chile next month will help define the specifics of the organization. They also created a South American Health Council. In my opinion, both of these efforts have good potential for long-term success.

N/A: According to Bloomberg, one funny moment occurred yesterday when Lula told Chavez to keep his remarks short or he would throw a shoe at him. Chavez managed to keep his remarks to five minutes, which Lula called "real transformation in Latin America."

AP:

The Millennium Challenge Corp, a U.S. development program working in some of the world's poorest countries, has already held back $64 million that had yet to be contracted out as part of a $175 million, five-year anti-poverty program. Callahan warned that the Millenium Challenge Corp's board of director could decide to cancel the program altogether when its board meets in 90 days.

"If the country cannot come to an agreement that is acceptable to all Nicaraguans, in which the whole country has faith, than I'm afraid that Nicaragua's account could be canceled," Callahan said.

The review in 90 days means that the decision on MCC funds will come early in Obama's term. There has been limited information about how Obama will manage the MCC accounts, so this will end up being a precedent-setting decision for the new administration, no matter which way it goes.

Here are 10+ questions to consider when reading the coverage of the various meetings in Brazil this week (background in the previous post).

1. Can the 33 nations accomplish anything? The US wasn't invited and didn't want to attend. I'm very interested to see what, if anything, the larger group of nations accomplish this week. It's a chance for Latin America to show some real leadership on key issues (finance, energy, environment, integration, development) without the US around to push its agenda. It's also possible that they accomplish nothing other than finger pointing and speeches.


2. Can Mercosur respond as an organization to the global financial crisis? The initial indication appears to be no. The group cannot come up with a common tariff policy and diplomatic disputes among the various countries are holding up the negotiations.


3. What does the Rio Group do? When they met earlier this year, they helped calm down the Colombia-Ecuador-Venezuela dispute. Earlier this month they announced Cuba has joined. Does this organization do anything other than get leaders together (a noble task, to be sure)? With all these other groupings of countries and leaders, the Rio Group needs a mission or it will simply be lost in the sea of other organizations.


4. How will UNASUR resolve its leadership dispute? Nestor Kirchner is the leading candidate to run UNASUR, but Uruguay has protested. Yesterday, when Argentina seemed prepared to change the unanimous consent rules on leadership posts, Uruguay threatened to leave the organization. This dispute is a chance for UNASUR to set some precedents for itself, but it's also a threat to the organization.
   


5. How does UNASUR respond to the Bolivia report? The organization is done with the easy job of writing a report condemning the massacre of civilians. What now? Strongly worded statements are important, but does the organization have any other actions to take?


6. What about the rest of the UNASUR agenda? There's a financial crisis to manage and a South American Defense Council that's been missing in action for the past few months, among other things. Bolivia and the leadership disagreement shouldn't completely sidetrack the organization.


7. Any movement on various regional disputes? Argentina-Uruguay, Brazil-Paraguay, Colombia-Ecuador, Colombia-Nicaragua, Ecuador-Brazil, Venezuela-Peru, etc. There are lots of little bilateral disputes, some new and others long-standing, among the various countries attending. None of them are on the main agenda, but they could provide some interesting side-shows.


8. What's the reaction to Ecuador's default? Do any of the organizations stand up and offer support for Ecuador? Is Ecuador able to get alternative financing for various projects? Are other leaders afraid to get too close for fear of harming their own economies?


9. How does Brazil's leadership and bureaucracy hold up? Holding one multilateral meeting is a difficult organizational task. Holding four in one week is a bureaucratic nightmare. If Brazil can make it through the week without any major conflicts or errors, it will be a success.


10. What's the correct unit for organization? As four different groupings of states (Mercosur, UNASUR, Rio Group and the unnamed 33 country group some call CALC) meet this week, they are in some ways in competition with each other. There are also various other organizations that just happen to have all of their members there unofficially including the Andean Community, Plan Puebla-Panama, ALBA, etc. Which organizations or group of states accomplish the most? Which accomplish the least? Are they more or less effective than the OAS and Summit of the Americas process? Which have legitimate multilateral agenda items and which are simply a platform for speeches and photos?

Comments about anything I've written? Questions? Leave them here.

This week in Costa do Sauipe, Brazil has invited 33 leaders from Latin America and the Caribbean to meet in a variety of forums. The highlight of the week will be the summit of all the leaders expected to take place tonight. The week begins with Mercosur and will also see meetings of the 23 member Rio Group and 12 member UNASUR.

Background from AFP and a summary of discussion topics form El Pais. The articles from both Bloomberg and AP were disappointing. Bloomberg focused on the fact the US is not attending, but the tone of the article treated US influence as the only issue of the week. AP claimed that Brazil might face a "backlash," which doesn't take into account the large amount of leadership it took just to pull all these meetings off and get everyone to attend.

More coverage: BBC

In today's Miami Herald, the director of the Peterson Institute and the president of Oxfam America, two people who are usually on different sides of the trade debate, call on President-elect Obama to push for a compromise that links free trade with universal healthcare in the US. The idea is that universal healthcare would bring benefits to the US economy as well as a safety net for workers that would offset the economic disruptions of free trade.

I don't know if this is the right compromise, but it is good to see people thinking outside the box and moving beyond the stale trade debate of the past eight years.

Washington Post:

While subsidies and low-interest loans sustain American farming, Argentina's government raises export taxes and calls the country's farmers greedy traitors out to topple the state. Now Argentina's heartland is being lashed by an economic crisis that has come in like the winter storms that blow off the Andes and across the pampa.

The crisis, which began in American financial institutions and has hobbled economies worldwide, is slowing demand for Argentine wheat, corn and soybeans -- and that is hitting this country's export-dependent economy especially hard. A report issued last week by New York-based DBRS, a credit rating agency that specializes in Argentina, predicts the economy will contract by more than 1 percent next year -- a sharp downturn for a country accustomed to posting annual growth rates approaching 9 percent.

I've seen several recent reports estimating Argentina will have a recession or grow very slowly next year. As the article says, that is a truly significant downturn from an economy that was on fire for the past few years. This goes beyond the global financial problems, which are affecting all of Latin America; Argentina's problems are caused by terrible government management.

Bloomberg reports that analysts believe Argentina grew at 6.7% in the third quarter of this year, which is very fast but also the slowest rate in five years, suggesting a slight slowing of the economy. If that number slows down to near zero next year as some expect, it would be an economic disaster.

Update: The Argentine government announced a new stimulus package today to counter the recent bad news:

Argentina unveiled plans on Monday to invest 111bn pesos in an expanded public works “megaplan” to kick-start the economy, lift public investment to a record 5 per cent of gross domestic product and double jobs in the construction sector.

At least it looks like they're taking the threat to the economy seriously.

Over the weekend, my iPhone broke as the power button was stuck after a very minor fall, making the phone completely unusable. I've owned the phone for 14 months and did not take out an extended warranty (not that the problem would have been covered anyway).

I took the phone to the Apple Store's Genius Bar, where they looked at it, looked up my information and said, "We can replace this for you." I walked out of the store 10 minutes later with a brand new phone. It's the same style 8MB first generation iPhone I had before. It's either left over from when Apple switched to 3G or it's a refurbished model, but either way, it works like it's new.

I have no clue whether Apple would do this for anyone else, but I'm very grateful for the free replacement.

The San Antonio Express-News is running a fantastic series on how guns sold in Texas are arming the cartels in Mexico. It's worth reading to understand how the cartels exploit US laws and just how far their influence runs inside of the US.

Part 1, Part 2, I'll update with Part 3 tomorrow.

Correa has said he will negotiate with bondholders but that they should expect a "much lower price." More from FT, Bloomberg and BBC.

El Comercio reports that we should know today how deep the default runs as Ecuador has interest on 2015 bonds due. While Correa said the country would default on the 2012 bonds, no official in the government has said how they will act on these. If Correa chooses not to pay on the 2015 bonds, the default will affect a much larger set of creditors.

Otto over at IKN blog calls the default a "very, very big mistake" and he links to Felix Salmon at Portafolio who is less kind in calling it "idiotic." Both say that the law is on the side of the creditors and that Ecuador will likely see foreign assets seized.

Secretary Rice traveled to Panama where she promoted the Pathways to Prosperity in the Americas Initiative. The final document is very positive towards the possibility of expanding free trade in the hemisphere.

Across the Atlantic, news was more pessimistic as the US and Brazil traded accusations over another failure to move forward on the Doha round. The US claims that developing nations were unwilling to negotiate removing tariffs on various industries while Brazil blamed developed nations for their "greed," including their unwillingness to make concessions on agricultural subsidies and the US demands on sectoral initiatives.

Along with the Colombia and Panama FTA's, these are the two main trade initiatives the Bush administration is leaving its successor. The Pathways initiative is new and relatively undefined; the Doha round appears to be stalled.

Keller's new poll shows Venezuelan President Chavez with an approval rating of 52%, but only between 26% and 31% support for the referendum to eliminate term limits early next year (depending on how he asks the question). This is the third poll I've seen with numbers around 30% in support of the reelection initiative.

Chavez will get higher than 30% in the referendum, and no pollster doubts that. He'll be able to move some votes during the campaign as well as use his party machine to turn out voters. However, Keller's point is that Chavez is starting from a weaker position than he claims.

I maintain my earlier statement that Chavez is actually a slight favorite to win the referendum at the moment, due to various turnout models, but that could change in the next month or two.

One other note, Keller's December poll asks how people voted in the regional elections and his number (adjusted for valid votes) comes within 1% of how the actual vote turned out. That's pretty close and suggests a level of accuracy for his model.

President Correa just announced that the country will not make the interest payment on the 2012 bonds.

The foreign minister also resigned earlier today.

Previous posts on Ecuador's recent debt moves here and here. Background and various scenarios from Reuters.

What does this mean for Ecuador's relations with Brazil? Venezuela (which owns a bunch of credit default swap-like securities on Ecuador bonds)? Why did a major Ecuadoran bank buy all those bonds at low prices recently?

Also, what does this mean globally with the current financial crisis?

I'm looking into it. More later....

Update (Saturday morning): As I'm reading through the stories, I see several analysts (including the Dialogue's Claudio Loser) emphasizing that this was a default of choice, not one of necessity. Ecuador has the money to pay its debt; it's choosing not to pay based on a variety of economic and ideological issues. That is different from many other countries that are forced to default as they run out of money. Ecuador isn't running out of money at the moment, so they are in a better position than most countries who default.

I noticed yesterday that Ricardo Patiño, the former finance minister who was forced to resign that post about a year ago after running a scam on manipulating Ecuador's debt, is up in New York to discuss the default issue with other developing nations at the UN. It's another sign Correa is going to play up the political angle on this default as much as possible.

Still no coverage this morning about who owns various structured notes that are tied to Ecuador's debt. Several analysts believe that Venezuela owned many of those notes. Assuming that the original reports were correct that Venezuela owned those structured notes, one of three things must be true:

1. Venezuela got rid of the notes over the past 30 days, taking a small financial loss but nowhere near as big as if they had kept them.
2. Venezuela will be forced to pay hundreds of millions of dollars to Ecuador's creditors, meaning Correa just got the best of Chavez.
3. Venezuela is about to join Ecuador as an ally in a political battle against "illegal debt" and will enter some sort of technical default on their structured notes in the next month.

If it's option #1, it's an interesting story but probably won't make much news. If it's option #2 or #3, this story is about to explode next week.

I haven't written much about Russia's presence in the hemisphere since my initial post last September. Even with the naval fleet in the region, nothing significant has really happened that wasn't expected. Even the visit through the Panama Canal went calmly and with minimal comment from the region, which was positive. However, that may be about to change in Nicaragua.

Nicaragua's constitution clearly states that no foreign military may visit the country unless they are approved by the national assembly. The legislature has been prevented from working for the past month, however, due to the dispute between Ortega and the opposition over the recent election results.

Ortega has said he will welcome the Russian fleet in spite of lacking legislative approval This will set up a showdown in which the president violates the constitution, but there isn't much that can be done to stop him. Ortega is also scheduled to visit Moscow next week

Russia, for its part, is going to continue on the visit (even if it's technically an "invasion" of a sovereign nation). I don't blame them. Not showing up in Nicaragua would be construed as a political statement against Ortega, which Russia doesn't want to do. It's not Russia's fault the legislature isn't meeting. Their best play is to simply remain on schedule and let the Nicaraguan domestic politics play out as they will.

Four former presidents from Latin American, Fox (Mexico), Pastrana (Colombia), Sanguinetti (Uruguay), Flores (El Salvador), plus Aznar (Spain) write in the WSJ:

The enemies of freedom that share anti-Western views are now forming new alliances. Liberties and freedoms are progressively being diminished inside some Latin American countries while hard-power foreign policies are being implemented as a means to increase influence and weaken the common enemy: the West. Latin Americans must continue to work with their American partners and friends to ensure the protection of democracy and other civil institutions. We must promote a transition to democracy in Cuba and direct our efforts to avoid the resurgence of authoritarian regimes.

Poverty is a painful reality in many countries. Millions of people do not have access to health care or education. This is unacceptable. We strongly believe that the benefits of globalization should be available to everybody. We have found in our own countries that strengthening democratic institutions, providing good governance, and opening up our borders to trade is the best way to improve social conditions and economic welfare.

The authors write out the problems they see in the region and ask the US to make democracy and economic freedom a priority, but outside of supporting free trade, they offer no tangible solutions or recommendations. It's a bit disappointing, actually, considering the influence these authors could carry if they were more specific.

Washington Post:

The past two weeks, however, have seen an easing of that impasse. Brazil has pledged to cut its annual deforestation rate by 70 percent by 2017 -- which could reduce the country's greenhouse gas emissions by 30 to 45 percent over the next decade -- and Mexico has vowed to bring its carbon emissions to 50 percent below their 2002 levels by 2050.

Developing nations are beginning to make solid pledges on climate change, leaving the US and EU with fewer excuses to act. China and India remain unwilling to give specific numbers (a major sticking point), but other countries including Brazil and Mexico are committing themselves to important goals, hoping developed nations will do the same.

The other piece of good news coming out of Poland is the large number of US government representatives (mostly in the form of members of Congress) who are attending the climate change talks. Nobody from the Obama administration is attending, but the recent appointments to his energy and environment team are leaving many optimistic.

As I mentioned in a previous post, the World Bank report on climate change in Latin America outlines the potentially devestating effects that will occur if the world fails to act. Brazil and Mexico, at the very least, are getting the message and trying to show they are politically flexible enough to strike a deal. Over the next four year, the US should respond by making even stronger commitments than the developing nations to the south to reducing greenhouse gasses.

The previous comments thread unfortunately never made it to anything of substance, but still had some entertainment value. Comments on the economic crisis, recent polls, Obama's excellent pick for Energy Secretary, or anything else?

Greg asked a few days ago whether Uribe was falling in the polls. It may be too soon to say "fall," but he has certainly stumbled in recent weeks. The most recent Gallup poll places Uribe's approval rating at 70%, still high but down from the mid-80's he was at a few months ago. Equally important, that same poll places support for Uribe's reelection at 54%, down from over 70% and nearing the crucial 50% mark.

While there are a number of factors to Uribe's stumble in the polls, the recent pyramid scandal appears to be the main catalyst. The numbers suggest that people still strongly support Uribe's security policies (although there is some growing concern about security compared to previous years), but they have always had more questions and doubts about his economic management and social policies. The pyramid scandal is a failure of economic regulation on the part of Uribe's government that has led some voters to consider his economic policies in greater detail.

One of the numbers I'm watching is the "gap" between Uribe supporters and those supporting his reelection. For some time, a steady 10% to 20% of Colombian voters have said that they like the president today but they do not feel he should be reelected for another term. If that number begins to increase to 25% or 30%, then Uribe's reelection possibilities could be limited even though he'll maintain the support of most Colombians.

According to several new reports, Mexico's drug cartels are increasingly involved in illicit trafficking operations to and from Europe. Although the cartels remain largely focused on moving drugs to the US market, the growing European market is proving a tempting target for the cartels to install operations. Recent arrests in Italy, France and the UK (as well as Australia) show the reach of the cartel operations in the distribution networks.

Europe is also providing the cartels sources of chemicals necessary to manufacture drugs. Of specific interest, one report says 40% of the precursor chemicals for cocaine are coming from Europe, through Mexico and into Colombia. The Mexican cartel role in ephedrine trafficking to manufacture illicit drugs stretches to Europe as well as India and China.

The World Bank released a new report today that outlines the devastating effects that climate change will have on Latin America and the Caribbean. The problems include a decrease in farming land, an increase in tropical diseases, a change in water patterns, the destruction of Caribbean coral reefs and a decrease in the region's biodiversity.

The report also recommends a policy outline for the region's response. Even though Latin America is minor player in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the region would benefit environmentally and economically by developing and implementing low carbon, renewable energy plans. The region needs a coordinated political agenda to push other regions (the US, Europe, Asia) to reduce their emissions. Latin America and the Caribbean also need to cooperate in creating plans to adapt to the coming climate changes, whether or not the other steps are implemented.

More specifically, the report recommends policies to reduce deforestation, increase hydropower (which I think it overemphasizes), improve energy efficiency, and reform urban transportation systems. There are also recommendations on biofuels and agriculture reform as they relate to energy and climate change.

Climate change is one of the three main topics at the upcoming Summit of the Americas. This report is certainly not the first nor final word on how Latin America should respond, but it's a good effort to provide details about the issues and policy options. I hope countries are paying enough attention to this issue to bring these sorts of recommendations to the table next April and act sooner rather than later on whatever policies they choose.

Mexico's legislature passed a police reform law that could help it fight the cartels while cracking down on abuses. Specifically:

• There will be national standards for training and investigating all local and state police forces.
• Police must immediately inform judicial authorities of all detentions.
• Laws govern the taping of evidence and allow it into court under new circumstances.
  
• Undercover agents may remain anonymous to avoid being targeted by cartels following court proceedings.
• Warrants may be issued by phone or over e-mail, allowing quicker turn around times for police and encouraging police to use the judicial system properly.

The legislature also passed a law requiring the registration of all cell phones and calling cards, but it is unclear how that will be enforced in a country where many of the sales occur in a gray market.

A recent poll shows 70% of Mexicans may consider the death penalty as an option for kidnappers. That includes over 90% of supporters from the PRD and over 60% from the PAN and PRI.

Finally, in a bit of troubling news, the country's special prosecutor for crimes against journalists says only 3 out of 25 journalists killed since 2007 were targeted due to their work. He says the rest were just bystanders to the violence affecting the rest of Mexico. That top official is in serious denial of the problem and should be reprimanded for those comments.

Ecuador is meeting with various Latin American governments looking for support as it considers defaulting on various debt obligations. The Correa government claims that the debt is illegal as it was taken on during a military dictatorship. Falling commidity prices, a tight budget situation and Correa's domestic politics are also at play. While Ecuador's default is not definite (in fact, there are good reasons they may not do so), they are certainly considering their options at the moment and looking for allies in case they do decide to make the move.

However, if it's looking for regional support, Ecuador may have lost a big ally in its diplomacy back in October when it refused to pay loans from the Brazilian development bank over a dispute with a Brazilian construction firm. A few weeks ago Brazil recalled its ambassador over the dispute. Yesterday, Brazilian Foreign Minister Amorim said Ecuador "shot itself in the foot" by refusing to pay the debt. He claimed Brazil will provide no further financing to Ecuador.

Two storylines are converging here. First, Ecuador may become one of the first countries to default during the ongoing global financial crisis (today's Washington Post covers the current regional response to the crisis). How neighboring countries and the global financial system react to Ecuador will be closely followed by other countries facing tough budget situations. No matter how much Correa makes this an issue about past illegal debt, the situation will be seen in the context of the present crisis. Second, Brazil's regional leadership is about to be tested. They want to be firm in their decisions, but they also don't want to be so tough that they cut into their own regional influence. If Ecuador defaults, does Brazil keep up the hard line or does it reach out to help?

FT:

Wheat output from Argentina, the world's number four exporter, is set to fall by more than 37 per cent in 2008-09 as slumping commodities prices, state regulation and a combination of drought, frost and searing heat in farming regions have battered prospects for the agricultural sector.

The area sown with wheat will be at a 30-year low and producers' groups say this will be compounded by a drop of up to 25 per cent in the 2008-09 harvest of corn, of which Argentina is the world's number two exporter.

As FT reports, there are a number of factors leading to Argentina's declining wheat production, but the government's policies this year including export controls are certainly one of them.

UPDATE: On the other side of the coin, Bloomberg has a lengthy article explaining how bad policies by the World Bank led to a decline of small farmers in developing countries and contributed to the food crisis.

I'm still going reading through things I missed during my vacation. A few lengthy reports that have caught my eye and are on my reading list. They are all somewhat related to US policy in Latin America, though not directly.

• Global Trends 2025 from the National Intelligence Council is the latest in a series of unclassified reports by the US government about the changes in the geo-political environment.
• Voices of America: U.S. Public Diplomacy for the 21st Century is a new report from Brookings on how the US should communicate with the world. Most importantly, the report stresses the importance of American citizens in how our image is shaped rather than focusing solely on government institutions.
• Both CAP and CNAS, two think tanks with strong ties to the incoming administration, have reports on energy reform and security. CAP looks at the policy framework while CNAS focuses more on the bureaucratic issues.

Comments are open.

NYT:

The number of gangland killings [in Mexico] reached 5,376 from the beginning of the year until Dec. 2, a 117 percent increase over the 2,477 killings in the same period in 2007, Mr. Medina-Mora said in a luncheon meeting with foreign correspondents.

The bulk of the killings have occurred in the border states of Chihuahua and Baja California, where traffickers have sought to wipe out rivals on the streets of Juárez and Tijuana, and in Sinaloa, where one of the country’s most powerful cartels has its base.

Medina-Mora's quote in the LA Times: "I don't think we've reached the top of the curve."

NYT:

A Venezuelan businessman who testified against his friend and former business partner in a South American political scandal involving a suitcase of cash was sentenced Monday by a Miami judge to 15 months in prison on a conspiracy charge.

The businessman, Carlos Kauffmann, 36, was the second government witness in the case to be sentenced. Moisés Maiónica, a Venezuelan lawyer, was sentenced to two years in prison last week after providing what Judge Joan Lenard of United States District Court called “substantial assistance” in the case.

More from Bloomberg. Both men who testified will likely be out next year based on time served. Duran, who did not cooperate and was found guilty, will be sentenced in January and will likely appeal.

FT covers how the sudden drop in oil prices are affecting the Mexico's reform of Pemex. Mexico is facing both declining prices and declining production. It was much easier to picture foreign firms helping Pemex when oil was over $100 per barrel. At under $40 for the Mexican crude, the country will need to provide a more stable image from an energy perspective to convince the industry it is a good long term bet. The difficult energy reform debate that the country has gone through may make some wonder whether a new administration could just turn the legislation back if the PRI or PRD take power in the next ten years.

The debate continues over what oil price Venezuela needs to keep a stable budget. Oil Wars writes that the number is around $54 but that Venezuelan reserves mean it can survive with oil under that amount for a significant length of time. Miguel Octavio paints a much more dire picture. My previous post on the subject is here and the top two points remain very relevant reminders. It's also good to remember we've only been under $100 per barrel for about three months, even if it seems like a distant memory.

Media report that both China and UAE are looking to invest significant sums of money into the Brazil pre-salt oil exploration. As AP explains, most still see Brazil as a good investment, but Petrobras and others are having a hard time getting loans from traditional sources in the tough credit market. Investments from countries or sovereign wealth funds could help ease the credit crunch for the Brazilian oil industry and could provide big returns to the countries that make the bet in this market.

Today's Miami Herald reports on how opposition gains in local and regional Venezuelan elections may help them create a power base to challenge President Chavez. Today's Washington Post discusses Chavez's rush to a new referendum on eliminating term limits.

I'm questioning what strategy the opposition should take towards the reelection referendum. Everyone seems to take it as a given that the opposition will put up an all out fight against the referendum. I'm thinking that may not be the best long-term strategy.

Chavez enters the referendum battle as a slight favorite (lets just say the best early numbers I have show about 55% support for this referendum). A lot can change in the next 2-3 months. A smart, coordinated opposition campaign could probably lead to its narrow defeat while external factors could swing that number significantly higher or lower.

If Chavez wins after a lengthy opposition campaign, the opposition loses its momentum from its gains in the last election. If Chavez loses, nobody, pro- or anti-Chavez, believes it will be his last attempt to gain reelection. There will be a new vote or a new decree or some unexpected twist between now and 2012 that Chavez will use. He's not going roll over and quit trying to stay in power just because he loses a referendum.

In order to win support, the opposition need to stand for something other than removing the current president. As long as they are fighting battles over Chavez's reelection and other issues that personalize the politics in the country, they are fighting on Chavez's turf. They need to take the fight to the issues like the economy and security, where the last elections show they can make significant gains.

For the opposition, the Miami Herald article I link to above may be more relevant than the Washington Post one. They now have significant posts of responsibility and a new grass roots organization gives them a base to build upon. Chavez wants the politics to be all about him, but the opposition have a chance to show something different as long as they don't fall into trap of personalizing the politics against the president.

Am I advocating for a tactical retreat on the reelection issue? Maybe. It would be a mistake for the opposition to quit campaigning or attempt a boycott, but focusing exclusively on Chavez's reelection will be a waste of time, resources and attention to the issues that the opposition need for future fights. "No means no" and other cute slogans that refer to the previous defeat of Chavez's attempts to extend his term are nice, but the opposition need to focus on what they want the people of Venezuela to say "yes" to. Let Chavez focus on his own obsession with staying in power while the opposition focuses on issues. The referendum may pass, but long-term, that sort of campaign strategy would be a success.

BBC:

Ten suspected traffickers and a soldier were killed in a shootout on Sunday in the southern state of Guerrero.

Another six people were killed in the north of the country when gunmen opened fire inside a pool hall in Ciudad Juarez, on the US-Mexico border.

The Mexican defence department also said that at least eight bodies had been found in a shallow grave in central Michoacan State.

It hit me a few weeks ago that these stories are in danger of becoming "routine." Listing off the statistics of violence on a weekly basis desensitizes readers and policymakers. The fact there is a conflict right on the US border should be a much greater concern.

WSJ:

On Thursday, Cuban blogger Claudia Cadelo, was summoned to appear at the Interior Ministry, which is in charge of domestic security. A day earlier, Yoani Sanchez, the nation's most prominent blogger, was told by authorities that her activities had "crossed the limits of tolerance," and was told she couldn't hold a planned meeting this Saturday of local bloggers, according to Ms. Sanchez....

...After the meeting, Ms. Sanchez reported on her blog that she was told the following: "We want to warn you that you have crossed the limits of tolerance with your closeness and contact with counter-revolutionary elements. The activity that you were pursuing for the next few days will not take place."...

...A new government decree, published this week online, said that Internet service providers must "prevent access to sites where the content is contrary to the social interest, morals or good customs; as well as the use of applications that affect the integrity or security of the State."

More from AP. Yoani Sanchez's blog Generacion Y has been on my reading list for a while. She started by providing interesting descriptions of every day life in Cuba and has become a symbol of the small but increasingly influential group of bloggers on the island.

Feel free to leave comments below about trade policy, Ecuador's debt negotiations, the money released to Mexico for the Merida Initiative, the crazy Canadian political game or any other topics on your mind.

Update: I was kindly informed in the comments section that today is Friday, not Monday. So I changed the title of the post. It's easy to lose track of the days while on vacation.

The rumors going around are that President-elect Obama will name California Congressman Xavier Becerra as US Trade Representative. His home paper the LA Times has already weighed in against the Congressman, saying he is too protectionist. I disagree. At first glance, I think naming Becerra is good politics that can lead to good policy.

Becerra's views on trade may not be welcome by free traders, but he does represent what is now the majority in Congress and the large plurality of the American public. If Obama wants a "team of rivals," then Becerra will provide a necessary voice to debating the next steps on trade policy.

The best comparison to the choice of Becerra is Obama's decision to keep Defense Secretary Gates in his position. From the political perspective, naming a Republican from the Bush administration gives Obama greater room to reform security policy, provides a necessary and experienced voice at the cabinet debates and will probably help the US leave Iraq properly while neutralizing criticism from many Republicans. In the same way Gates will give political capital from the right to reform security and defense policy, naming Becerra gives Obama the political edge on the left to reform our trade policy.

Naming a ardent free-trader to USTR and trying to hammer through agreements simply maintains the broken debate on trade we have today (not to mention violates Obama's campaign promises). Short term, Becerra's nomination means that the labor and environmental protections placed in the Peru FTA will be monitored and gives greater credibility to any additional protections placed in other FTA's. Long term, getting Becerra on board means we can start rethinking how trade policy works and create a new coalition for international (free and fair?) trade that includes both sides of the aisle. This isn't an isolationist move; it's a political decision that acknowledges the reality of the debate and is necessary to move forward.

After a long day of travel yesterday, I'm back in DC. Before I get back to the usual blogging, a couple thoughts.

It was my first trip to Europe other than a brief Paris stopover on my way to Africa a few years ago. It seems obvious, but stuff's old there. The Western Hemisphere has a lack of 13th century cathedrals and 2nd century Roman ruins. Machu Picchu remains the most impressive set of ruins I've ever seen, but it did feel like the ancient buildings in Europe have a lot history.

We absolutely loved Malaga, Spain and Lisbon, Portugal. Both cities are high on my list of places I'm recommending to others. Santorini, Greece was surprisingly fun (we walked about half the island). I was actually somewhat underwhelmed by my first impressions of Venice (abot a week before the flooding) and Dubrovnik. Nice cities, but I didn't feel I needed more than a day in either one. Maybe I'd feel differently if I spent more time there. Tunis and the Roman ruins at Carthage were interesting. Casablanca was a nice city, but we were both surprised by the gender discrimination there. Women were definitely second class citizens in that country in a way I hadn't seen previously.

It was entertaining that when I would say I was American, most people would say "new president" with a big smile on their faces. There was clearly excitement, particularly among the immigrant communities in Europe. We also saw some latent racism among some of the Europeans we met, who were excited about the end of Bush's term but expressed concern over the "first black president." Even one cab driver in Tunisia (not quite Europe) seemed a bit concerned about it. That certainly wasn't everyone or even a majority of people, but it was enough people that I noticed it.

The tragic terrorist attack in India dominated the little news that I watched and read. CNN International, BBC and occasionally Al Jazeera were a constant reminder of the garbage we have back at home with CNN, MSNBC and FoxNews. It's not about ideology; it's about the quality of coverage and it remains lacking here.

Speaking of news, for the doubters, I did just fine without regular internet, e-mail access, blogging and iPhone coverage. Thanks for asking.

I finally got around to reading Michael Reid's Forgotten Continent. I liked the book, particularly the chapter on the Washington Consensus and the economics of the 90's. I didn't agree with everything he had to say about the current situation in Latin America, but thought he did a good job laying out the historical aspects of the problems. I also read Joseph Ellis' American Creation, which I highly recommend for those who like early US history, and Len Fisher's Rock, Paper, Scissors: Game Theory in Everyday Life, which was a light and entertaining read (my version of a beach read) but nothing essential.

Figuring out where to begin blogging again is going to be a challenge. I think I'll just ignore everything I missed, start with the current news and possibly catch up on some of the bigger topics I've been thinking about in a few weeks.

The wife and I are taking a vacation (Mediterranean cruise). Depending on a number of factors, I don't plan to post much until December 4th. This post will remain up top until I get back.

I'm off the ship and in Lisbon.

Russia is hanging out in the Caribbean, the EU and US have suspended some aid to Nicaragua, Betancourt is back in Colombia, Chavez is pushing for reelection, Mexico's violence has continued, Brookings has a new report out about Latin America.

Feel free to leave comments on anything I've missed over the past few weeks. I'll be back to writing later this week.