Uribe reelection back up in the air

There were good indications starting in January that Colombian President Uribe would not run for reelection. Just three weeks ago, he gave an interview to the AP in which he strongly hinted he would step aside and support a successor.

Then, in recent weeks, the pendulum shifted back the other way. From FT:

Alvaro Uribe, Colombia´s president, moved this week to strengthen his hand for a controversial third term as the Andean nation’s economy showed the strains of falling exports and faltering consumer confidence.

The president, who has an approval rating of about 70 per cent, this week secured the support of his coalition partners for a bill that would approve a national referendum to alter the constitution to allow for his candidacy, and appointed two supportive judges to the country´s constitutional court.

I'm bothered by both the reelection proposal and, perhaps more significantly, the court packing.

What's changed Uribe's mind? Here are four possibilities:

1. No viable successor. Uribe really cares that his successor carry on his security policies and if he sees polling that shows his side won't win or political infighting that could split the vote, he may want to step in.
2. Changed US policy. With US policy appearing to turn a bit away from Colombia and towards Brazil and Mexico, Uribe may actually be feeling less pressure to leave. He may also be putting his potential reelection back on the table as negotiating leverage for the FTA or security assistance.
3. Finish the job. Uribe's security policies have dealt major blows to the FARC and other illegal armed groups and drug cartels, but there are still significant security problems. Uribe is particularly bothered by the idea the FARC may be "waiting him out," with their leadership hiding in bordering countries just waiting for him to leave power.
4. He's always wanted it. Uribe's got an ego, nobody doubts that. Maybe he has always been going after this next term and just playing coy.

In my mind, none of those reasons justifies Uribe staying in office another term, but polls show Colombians may feel differently. If Uribe wants a third term and can get the legal technicalities in place, he has a good (although not certain) chance of winning. I'm hoping we see him change his mind again and step aside for the good of Colombian democracy.