POLL NUMBERS!!! Chile's 3rd candidate
Two months ago, it seemed clear that Chile's presidential race would be Eduardo Frei vs. Sebastian Piñera. Every other candidate was a small blip on the radar screen. Almost out of nowhere Marco Enriquez-Ominami has become a contender.
A poll from La Segunda shows Enriquez-Ominami performing the same as Frei against Piñera in a second round matchup (Piñera wins 45-37 or 44-34). In a three-way race, Enriquez is pulling 15% and that number appears to be on the rise.
The same poll finds that half of Concertacion voters want a primary between the two candidates prior to the first round of the general election. However, it seems clear Enriquez wants to run in the general and Frei doesn't want to legitimize his candidacy further by suggesting a primary.
Enriquez has an interesting policy perspective, coming from a socialist/green background but also putting forward some fairly conservative economic policies including reducing certain taxes and allowing for greater private investment in state-owned industries. His appeal is less about his specific policies and more based on his youth, energy, new image and personal story. For more background, there was a discussion on Enriquez at a recent Dialogue event.
It still remains likely that Enriquez will hit a ceiling of support and the election will play out with Piñera vs. Frei exactly as everyone originally believed. However, if I was in the Frei campaign, I'd be concerned. Frei is the Concertacion candidate not because he has widespread appeal but because he strategically appeared to be the strongest candidate against Piñera. If Enriquez can show he has real support and an ability to mobilize a youthful base without alienating other constituencies, Frei may find himself facing a much tougher battle for second place in the first round than he expected.
A poll from La Segunda shows Enriquez-Ominami performing the same as Frei against Piñera in a second round matchup (Piñera wins 45-37 or 44-34). In a three-way race, Enriquez is pulling 15% and that number appears to be on the rise.
The same poll finds that half of Concertacion voters want a primary between the two candidates prior to the first round of the general election. However, it seems clear Enriquez wants to run in the general and Frei doesn't want to legitimize his candidacy further by suggesting a primary.
Enriquez has an interesting policy perspective, coming from a socialist/green background but also putting forward some fairly conservative economic policies including reducing certain taxes and allowing for greater private investment in state-owned industries. His appeal is less about his specific policies and more based on his youth, energy, new image and personal story. For more background, there was a discussion on Enriquez at a recent Dialogue event.
It still remains likely that Enriquez will hit a ceiling of support and the election will play out with Piñera vs. Frei exactly as everyone originally believed. However, if I was in the Frei campaign, I'd be concerned. Frei is the Concertacion candidate not because he has widespread appeal but because he strategically appeared to be the strongest candidate against Piñera. If Enriquez can show he has real support and an ability to mobilize a youthful base without alienating other constituencies, Frei may find himself facing a much tougher battle for second place in the first round than he expected.
Labels: chile, elections, latinamerica, polls |
