POLL NUMBERS!!! Defining victory in Argentina
As I mentioned in a previous post, it's hard to poll in a legislative election. It takes state by state polls which often aren't as accurate as national level polls. However, everyone agrees the government was likely to lose ground in this election, which is why they gambled on a different tactic. With former President Kirchner running for a congressional seat, the government is placing focus on a single race and working to redefine how this race will be analyzed.
In Buenos Aires province, according to InfoLatam and EFE, six recent polls show between a 3% and 10% lead for former President Nestor Kirchner over dissident Peronist Francisco De Nárváez and an opposition list led by Margarita Stolbizer.
However, even with Kirchner in the lead, in no case does any candidate poll above 35%. This means Kirchner may win but his list of Peronists could lose seats in the Buenos Aires province, which is supposed to be a government stronghold.
In spite of the lack of polling outside of the one big race, most analysts now believe that the Kirchners will lose many of the larger interior provinces. Combined with the potential losses in the BsAs province, it looks likely that the Kirchners will lose their majority in the lower house of Congress.
Still, with Nestor Kirchner running, the media will be focused heavily on that race which he is favored to win. This means all the parties will be declaring victory on election night unless there is a major national shift in favor of the government or if the former president fails in his race.
I expect that everyone will have something to cheer about and no side will be able to declare total victory.
I couldn't find all the polls, but here are polls from Management & Fit, Jorge Giacobbe and an internal campaign poll leaked to the media from De Nárváez. More discussion of the race from the Economist and Oppenheimer.
Finally, from Copub, there remains some significant indifference and skepticism among the Argentine public. Only 53% could correctly answer questions about the upcoming election, compared to 70% in the 2005 legislative elections. Half of people said they wouldn't vote if it wasn't mandatory, 45% said the elections aren't important and only a third said they actually understood all the competing arguments among the candidates. That should be troubling for all the candidates.
In Buenos Aires province, according to InfoLatam and EFE, six recent polls show between a 3% and 10% lead for former President Nestor Kirchner over dissident Peronist Francisco De Nárváez and an opposition list led by Margarita Stolbizer.
However, even with Kirchner in the lead, in no case does any candidate poll above 35%. This means Kirchner may win but his list of Peronists could lose seats in the Buenos Aires province, which is supposed to be a government stronghold.
In spite of the lack of polling outside of the one big race, most analysts now believe that the Kirchners will lose many of the larger interior provinces. Combined with the potential losses in the BsAs province, it looks likely that the Kirchners will lose their majority in the lower house of Congress.
Still, with Nestor Kirchner running, the media will be focused heavily on that race which he is favored to win. This means all the parties will be declaring victory on election night unless there is a major national shift in favor of the government or if the former president fails in his race.
I expect that everyone will have something to cheer about and no side will be able to declare total victory.
I couldn't find all the polls, but here are polls from Management & Fit, Jorge Giacobbe and an internal campaign poll leaked to the media from De Nárváez. More discussion of the race from the Economist and Oppenheimer.
Finally, from Copub, there remains some significant indifference and skepticism among the Argentine public. Only 53% could correctly answer questions about the upcoming election, compared to 70% in the 2005 legislative elections. Half of people said they wouldn't vote if it wasn't mandatory, 45% said the elections aren't important and only a third said they actually understood all the competing arguments among the candidates. That should be troubling for all the candidates.
Labels: argentina, latinamerica, polls |
