Crisis in Honduras 3

BREAKING: Honduras President Zelaya arrested.

While I was in the middle of writing my third round of analysis (which started with a warning that events were moving quickly), this news broke. From BBC:
Honduran President Manuel Zelaya has been arrested by troops ahead of a controversial constitutional referendum.

Mr Zelaya's secretary said that the president had been taken to an airbase outside the capital, Tegucigalpa.
I'm updating mostly on Twitter for those who want to follow this news real time. I'll update this post later.

UPDATE 1215: Zelaya was taken to Costa Rica, where he is speaking with the media about the "coup". OAS is meeting today. Roberto Micheletti, the president of the Congress (and from Zelaya's Liberal Party) is expected to be named "interim president," although the legitimacy will be a big source of debate for a while.

UPDATE 1330: Zelaya says he was kidnapped at gun point and shots were fired in presidential palace (he's still wearing his pajamas in media interviews from Costa Rica, someone get him a suit). The Honduras judicial authorities said that the arrest order for the president was legal and therefore this was not a coup. US, Brazil and practically everyone else have made a statement condemning events and calling for democratic and peaceful solution. In some very harsh rhetoric, Venezuelan President Chavez said that the arrest of Venezuela's ambassador in Honduras was a "act of war," put his military on alert and threatened to "bring down" any government that claims to replace Zelaya.

UPDATE 1530: In a very strange episode, the Honduras Congress claimed they had a letter of resignation signed by Zelaya. The president (or former president, depending on who you believe) was on CNN almost instantly to say that the letter was false. My initial analysis is that it is either a forgery or it was signed under duress. Either way, this move by the Congress looks wrong. I believe the Congress has now officially named Roberto Micheletti as interim-president.

The US has condemned the events today (although they've avoided using the word "coup," reflecting the complexity of the situation) and called for a restoration of democracy. Significantly, the US ambassador to Honduras said that the US still recognizes Zelaya as the legitimate president of Honduras.

UPDATE 1800: Micheletti spoke to the Congress, saying that he plans to hold presidential elections in November as scheduled. No governments have recognized Micheletti's presidency.

UPDATE LATE: The OAS passed a resolution. Here are the key parts:
1. To condemn vehemently the coup d’état staged this morning against the constitutionally-established Government of Honduras, and the arbitrary detention and expulsion from the country of the constitutional president José Manuel Zelaya Rosales, which has produced an unconstitutional alteration of the democratic order.

2. To demand the immediate, safe and unconditional return of President José Manuel Zelaya Rosales to his constitutional functions.

3. To declare that no government arising from this unconstitutional interruption will be recognized.

UPDATE LATER: Two anonymous US officials on the State Dept call said that the US agrees with the OAS resolution and would officially classify this event as a coup.

I'm covering this much more closely on Twitter, so follow me there.