I've been watching the building crisis in Honduras this week with concern.
President Mel Zelaya wants to reform the constitution, including changing the term limits to allow him to run again. His plan is to start this weekend with a non-binding referendum that could lead to a vote in November that would start the constitutional reform process.
The Supreme Court, the Attorney General and the Human Rights Ombudsman have all said the referendum this weekend would be illegal. The Honduran Congress passed a law on Tuesday to restrict the president's ability to call a referendum, specifically to stop this weekend's vote.
The situation worsened last night as the head of the Armed Forces refused to follow an order to assist with the referendum this weekend. The general said he considered the order illegal as other branches of government had prohibited the referendum. The head of the Congress even asked the Armed Forces to refuse to follow the president's order. The general was fired and the minister of defense resigned over the incident and over differences with how the president is handling the situation. Now, the Attorney General says the general's firing may be unconstitutional and may try to re-institute him.
This is a serious institutional crisis with the president opposed by other branches of government and dissent within the military and within his own cabinet. However, Zelaya plans to hold his referendum this weekend, no matter who within the government opposes him. There is nothing legally binding about this weekend's referendum, but if Zelaya wins and feels it shows popular support, he is going to push forward for more significant changes starting in November.
UPDATE: General Vasquez said that he respects the president's decision to fire him. The Congress and Supreme Court have asked the president to reinstate General Vasquez as head of the Armed Forces. The Attorney General has reportedly asked the Congress to begin impeachment proceedings against the president. Media report there are a few hundred troops in the streets of the capital, "protecting" government installations from protests. Zelaya has asked for the OAS to show support for his government. I'm busy, but trying to post updates to my Twitter feed as I see them.
