Five points on Argentina's legislative elections
A loss for President Kirchner. The Kirchner wing of the Peronist Party lost its majority in the legislature, losing seats in several regions of the country. Initial estimates appear that they lost about 22 seats in the lower house and 4-5 seats in the Senate. They only took about 30% of the national vote. The specific numbers could change as the votes are counted and seats are calculated (so don't take those initial numbers as absolutely accurate), but the result is certainly a loss of a Congressional majority for the president.
A loss for the Kirchners. The Kirchners also faced a very personal and symbolic loss as Nestor Kirchner came in second to De Narvaez in the province of Buenos Aires. The result of that race was about 34.5% to 32%. The government knew it was going to lose some seats, but it had hoped that a win for the former president would allow them to take some momentum away from the election. Losing this race was an embarrassment for the presidential couple.
Continued questions. Prior to this election, Crisitina Kirchner's government tried hard to stress that this was a legislative election and the results would not put her presidency into question. However, the results were a pretty clear rejection from the population. The president had hoped to put the questions about the stability of her government behind her in this election, but this election is going to increase the questions coming from the media and elsewhere.
Finding opportunity in crisis. The results were all bad for the Kirchners, but they can still bounce back. Their opposition now controls real power, but the opposition is also fairly divided across the dissident Peronists, the Radicals, the urban elite, the rural farmers and many other groups. There is no ideological cohesiveness to the opposition other than how they feel about the governing party (in fact, the disputes between potential 2011 presidential candidates could divide the opposition further). Having an opposition with real power will lower the public's expectations for Cristina Kirchner and give the public other groups to blame for problems as they arise. There are definitely ways the Kirchners could use that situation to their advantage if they think smart, long-term political strategy.
Or it could all explode. The Kirchners should now work with the new Congress, moderate their policies where necessary in order to get the government's work done and take advantage of this situation as a new beginning. The new powers in Congress should not simply oppose the Kirchners. Every party in Congress should find ways to work with the president because Argentina faces some seriously tough challenges. Unfortunately, as everyone knows, just because they should cooperate on governing doesn't mean they will. If the Kirchners double down on their policies, particularly their economic policies, and the opposition unifies in Congress to oppose the Kirchners, Argentina could be in for a couple tough years politically.
A loss for the Kirchners. The Kirchners also faced a very personal and symbolic loss as Nestor Kirchner came in second to De Narvaez in the province of Buenos Aires. The result of that race was about 34.5% to 32%. The government knew it was going to lose some seats, but it had hoped that a win for the former president would allow them to take some momentum away from the election. Losing this race was an embarrassment for the presidential couple.
Continued questions. Prior to this election, Crisitina Kirchner's government tried hard to stress that this was a legislative election and the results would not put her presidency into question. However, the results were a pretty clear rejection from the population. The president had hoped to put the questions about the stability of her government behind her in this election, but this election is going to increase the questions coming from the media and elsewhere.
Finding opportunity in crisis. The results were all bad for the Kirchners, but they can still bounce back. Their opposition now controls real power, but the opposition is also fairly divided across the dissident Peronists, the Radicals, the urban elite, the rural farmers and many other groups. There is no ideological cohesiveness to the opposition other than how they feel about the governing party (in fact, the disputes between potential 2011 presidential candidates could divide the opposition further). Having an opposition with real power will lower the public's expectations for Cristina Kirchner and give the public other groups to blame for problems as they arise. There are definitely ways the Kirchners could use that situation to their advantage if they think smart, long-term political strategy.
Or it could all explode. The Kirchners should now work with the new Congress, moderate their policies where necessary in order to get the government's work done and take advantage of this situation as a new beginning. The new powers in Congress should not simply oppose the Kirchners. Every party in Congress should find ways to work with the president because Argentina faces some seriously tough challenges. Unfortunately, as everyone knows, just because they should cooperate on governing doesn't mean they will. If the Kirchners double down on their policies, particularly their economic policies, and the opposition unifies in Congress to oppose the Kirchners, Argentina could be in for a couple tough years politically.
Labels: argentina, democracy, economics, elections, latinamerica |
