The understatement of the day was Brazil Foreign Minister Amorim saying "we hope this will open a new phase of negotiations" now that President Zelaya is back in Honduras. Well yes, that seems likely to happen.Yesterday's events certainly changed the nature of the Honduras crisis. Zelaya's entering the country increases the visibility and the urgency of the situation. It gives a new higher profile role to Brazil. It provided renewed focus internationally. The outcome remains as uncertain as ever.
Zelaya's return certainly places some immediate pressure on the de facto government. Mobilizations by his supporters and international pressure could force the regime to crack in the next 72 hours. Knowing this, the regime has implemented a curfew and will be cracking down on protesters and media.
However, this is certainly a gamble for Zelaya. If he's not successful quickly, he may have backed himself into a corner. It's unlikely (though anything is possible) that the Micheletti government would let Zelaya leave so he can bounce around the world again. They may arrest him or leave him stranded in the embassy. Over time, they'll attempt to shut off communications and media coverage. Once Zelaya is out of sight, it will be harder for him to rally support.
Speaking with people yesterday, views were split. Several people called this the "endgame" and expected a relatively quick resolution. Others said they thought the de facto government would continue its stubbornness and Zelaya should make himself comfortable at the Brazil embassy for a long stay.
Potential Scenarios:
- Micheletti and Zelaya sign San Jose Accord and abide by the agreement.
- Protests or a second coup force Micheletti out of office, bring back in Zelaya.
- Micheletti simply surrenders power to Zelaya.
- The two sides open up new negotiations.
- Presidential candidates start siding with Zelaya and against Micheletti, changing the nature of the coming election.
- Zelaya spends the next few months in the Brazilian embassy as de facto government avoids pressure to act.
- Zelaya hands himself over to authorities for trial.
- Micheletti government raids Brazilian embassy to arrest Zelaya.
