Bloggings by boz

Is Honduras moving in the right direction or wrong direction:
Right Direction: 15%, Wrong Direction 81%

There are many interesting data points in the GQR poll released yesterday, but the first question may be the most relevant. By an overwhelming majority, Hondurans are unhappy with the situation as it exists today. Reading into the data, what's clear is they want the current crisis to be over.

The poll was taken from 9-13 October. Here are a few more data points (and you can see the full poll results at the link):

Approval of removal of President Zelaya:
Strongly approve: 25, Somewhat approve: 13,
Somewhat disapprove 20, Strongly disapprove 40.
Net: Approve 38, Disapprove 60.

How to resolve the current crisis:

Zelaya returns with full powers:
Approve 46, Disapprove 52

Micheletti remains president:
Approve 27, Disapprove 72

3rd person leads govt until election:
Approve 50, Disapprove 49

Hold assembly to reform constitution:
Approve 54, Disapprove 43

If elections are held under Micheletti:
Legitimate: 54, Not legitimate: 42

I will say, I find it hard to believe that GQR held a poll and didn't ask about candidates in the upcoming presidential election, but Honduras has laws about who is allowed to poll election results and it may be GQR isn't registered to report them.

Brief Analysis:

• As mentioned above, Hondurans really don't like the current situation and, while they disagree as to the exact solution, they want to see it over.
• Three months after the coup, a large majority of the public (60%) disagrees with Zelaya's removal.
• Zelaya has gained some sympathy points since the coup. His numbers are 15-25 points higher today than they were before he was overthrown. However, the public is still divided over his returning to the presidency.
  
• Micheletti's numbers appear to have gone up slightly in the past few months, but it's important to note a majority think he's there illegitimately and should leave.
• The crisis has also increased support for a constitutional reform. If the conflict among the political factions in Honduras has shown the public anything, it's that their constitution has some flaws.
• Hondurans are looking for a solution to the current crisis and are willing to accept various compromises to get there. The only solution that has significant rejection is Micheletti remaining as president. No solution has overwhelming support, but a compromise between the two sides would likely be well received by a fairly large portion of the public based on my reading of the numbers.
  
• That said, a majority of Hondurans view elections as a potential solution to the crisis and would accept their results if it meant an end to the political battles. They will probably turn against any politician who tries to continue the current battles beyond the election.