Jose Mujica won over 50% of the vote and defeated Luis Lacalle in a runoff election yesterday. Coverage from the first round here, here and here.Overlooked. Be honest, most readers were more concerned with the elections in a certain Central American country yesterday than the outcome in Uruguay. The cost of a successful transition to democracy and recent strong policies is that Uruguay's elections were relatively uneventful and perhaps even a bit boring for analysts. It's a testament to Uruguay's success.
Win for moderates. Mujica won by dropping the extreme ideology of his past and embracing the moderate progressive policies of the current administration. He picked a vice president who represented the Vazquez administration and is trusted by markets. He dodged his opponent's attempts to link him with the more populist leaders and went out of his way to compare himself to Brazilian President Lula, the former union leader who moderated his policies on the path to the presidency. He promised to work within the institutions, not overthrow them. For moderates in the region, it was a welcome win.
Loss for continuismo. President Vazquez flirted with changing the constitution to run for reelection. He probably had the popularity and institutional backing to do so. Yet, Vazquez chose not to run and promised to return to his former job as a doctor once his term was over. It was a good example for the region and was a final show of moderation from the president that I think exemplifies why he leaves with such high approval ratings.
Win for an incumbent president (sort of). Uruguay was the first in a string elections in the region over the next few months (Chile, Costa Rica, Brazil and perhaps Colombia) in which presidents will try to pass their mandates to successors. Mujica was not President Vazquez's top choice as successor, but he was a member of the president's party. The Broad Front also won a legislative majority. As much as regional trends can be watched, one question was whether we would see an anti-incumbent wave in the wake of the recent political confrontations and financial crises. At least in the case of Uruguay, the incumbents held.
The former guerrilla's challenge. Mujica faced tough accusations during the campaign that he was a radical ideologue unfit to govern. A majority of Uruguayan voters ignored the attacks and trusted Mujica to govern sensibly like his predecessor. Mujica now faces a tough balancing act of fulfilling his campaign promises, which did go beyond the current administration, while also continuing Vazquez's popular policies. He doesn't want his term to simply be seen as a second Vazquez term (with the second term doldrums that usually come with it), but he also doesn't want to represent a radical shift for the country, which would not go over well with many voters. The man who once advocated for armed revolution needs a soft touch to maintain popularity and pass his agenda.
