Bloggings by boz

For background on this weekend's election, see Jim Schultz (one, two, three), Miguel Centellas, Bloomberg and probably plenty more links I'm leaving out.

How big does Evo win? All of the polls suggest President Morales will win reelection in the first round and it would be very unexpected if that doesn't happen. With the outcome all but certain, it's worth watching Morales' vote total; winning above 60 would be a large victory, below 50 would be a disappointment given the expectations for his side. It's also worth watching how many provinces he will win. Winning in all nine provinces would be a boost to Morales' national mandate and his political capital while a win in only 4 or 5 would be a disappointment (though certainly still a win).

The 2nd place fight. If Manfred Reyes Villa can show a solid second place, he could cement his position as the key opposition leader for the next few years. However, potentially undercutting him, the Morales government has promised to charge Manfred with corruption as soon as the election is over and claim he will attempt to flee the country. A weak opposition finish or one where they seem to step on each other will throw the opposition leadership into more chaos than they already face.

The Senate. Will MAS take a majority? Will MAS take 2/3? The opposition has made clear they don't expect to win the presidency, but really want to keep the Senate. Maintaining control of at least part of one branch of government gives the opposition a chance to check the president's power. Morales has made clear he wants a legislative majority (or super-majority) to make more significant changes.

Autonomy votes. Five regions in Western Bolivia will be voting on autonomy referendums, similar to the ones previously approved by the East (quite controversially). Polls say it will pass in all five. It's hard to say what the precise effects of autonomy will be, but the vote is likely to be a shift in electorate in the West towards approval of autonomy. What does autonomy mean to the average Bolivian voter? I think that differs greatly across regions and income levels.

Results vs. Polls. This is more for the polling geek in me than of any political significance, but it will be interesting to see how the results of the election match up or don't with the polls prior to the election. Four years ago the polls greatly underestimated Morales' support, likely due to errors in turnout models and underestimating the rural vote (although some still claim conspiracies). Since then, pollsters have altered their models to adjust for greater MAS support in rural areas. Will Evo do better than polls again, as has occurred in previous elections? Will he underperform, suggesting pollsters overshot their adjustments or missed shifts within the MAS base? Or will they get close to accurate, finally finding the right balance?