Five points on Morales
Mandate. Elected four years ago, even with a majority of the vote, I wrote that Morales' initial mandate still stood on shaky ground. There was a question of whether his coalition of rural and urban, poor and middle class, ideological extremes and moderates would hold once Morales started governing and implementing specific policies. The answer is that they did. Morales won over 60% of the vote this election and a majority in 5 or 6 of the 9 provinces. During his first term, his approval rating never fell below 45%. Morales has maintained a stable coalition and the majority of the population are rather pleased with how he's governed over his first term. They also just like him personally. With this victory, he clearly has a mandate and political capital to continue his agenda.
With authority. With 2/3 in both houses of Congress, Morales has the authority to implement his agenda. He can pass bills that were previously blocked. He can alter the constitution rather easily. Of course, this gives Morales less opportunity to blame the opposition for his problems. Overreach is clearly a concern, but Morales has already signaled that he's aware of the balance he must strike now that his party has full control.
A changing Bolivia. Regional autonomy was mostly ignored in this election's debate as everyone watches the national scene, but it could turn out to be one of the decisive legacies of the Morales administration. Layers of empowered local governments are fertile ground for political movements across the ideological spectrum to grow and thrive. It is also a potential source for conflict between local regions and the national government, both for Morales' presidency and for future presidents.
A terrible opposition. It's not just that Evo is popular. It's also that the opposition is rather awful. The choices of candidates were particularly uninspiring and they did a poor job identifying an agenda that appealed to a majority of the population. Criticisms of how the president has harmed democracy, corruption charges, or how his policies might harm the economy eventually only go so far. In an election, the opposition needed to make a case for how they would make the lives of Bolivian citizens better and needed to reach out beyond their base. In that, they failed.
Don't stay for 3. The night of the election, Morales hinted that he would be eligible for a third term as the election was his first under a new constitution. That trick has been pulled by others in Latin America including Alberto Fujimori and it generally ends badly. Bolivia's population didn't elect Morales to a second term so he could use the opportunity to run for a third. They elected him to continue and advance his agenda. Morales, like Uribe, would do more to cement his legacy by focusing on policies, not politics, and working to create a system and find a successor who will continue them. If his policies are truly strong, then they shouldn't rely on his personality alone.
Also see post-election analysis from Miguel and Jim. My pre-election post is here.
With authority. With 2/3 in both houses of Congress, Morales has the authority to implement his agenda. He can pass bills that were previously blocked. He can alter the constitution rather easily. Of course, this gives Morales less opportunity to blame the opposition for his problems. Overreach is clearly a concern, but Morales has already signaled that he's aware of the balance he must strike now that his party has full control.
A changing Bolivia. Regional autonomy was mostly ignored in this election's debate as everyone watches the national scene, but it could turn out to be one of the decisive legacies of the Morales administration. Layers of empowered local governments are fertile ground for political movements across the ideological spectrum to grow and thrive. It is also a potential source for conflict between local regions and the national government, both for Morales' presidency and for future presidents.
A terrible opposition. It's not just that Evo is popular. It's also that the opposition is rather awful. The choices of candidates were particularly uninspiring and they did a poor job identifying an agenda that appealed to a majority of the population. Criticisms of how the president has harmed democracy, corruption charges, or how his policies might harm the economy eventually only go so far. In an election, the opposition needed to make a case for how they would make the lives of Bolivian citizens better and needed to reach out beyond their base. In that, they failed.
Don't stay for 3. The night of the election, Morales hinted that he would be eligible for a third term as the election was his first under a new constitution. That trick has been pulled by others in Latin America including Alberto Fujimori and it generally ends badly. Bolivia's population didn't elect Morales to a second term so he could use the opportunity to run for a third. They elected him to continue and advance his agenda. Morales, like Uribe, would do more to cement his legacy by focusing on policies, not politics, and working to create a system and find a successor who will continue them. If his policies are truly strong, then they shouldn't rely on his personality alone.
Also see post-election analysis from Miguel and Jim. My pre-election post is here.
Labels: bolivia, democracy, elections, latinamerica |
