Earlier this week I started, but didn't finish, writing a post with the following:Mexico ends its year with a major success in its war, the killing of Arturo Beltran Leyva. The killing of drug bosses disrupts the system, but won't likely lower the violence in any particular region.The analysis went on from there. Somewhere between yesterday and today, what started as a major success has turned into a nightmare. On Monday, Mexico held a funeral with full honors for the marine killed in the attack on the cartel leader. Hours later, cartel members killed that fallen marine's mother and three other relatives in a violent attack meant to intimidate and terrorize those who fight on the side of the government.
There are some saying Mexico should be focused on law enforcement solutions to battle the criminal aspect of the cartels while others have said Mexico needs a counter-insurgency strategy to defeat what looks like fourth generation warfare. Sylvia Longmire writes that the drug trafficking organizations are "behaving like a hybrid of organized crime, terrorists, and insurgents." I think that's correct.
The hybrid nature of the bad guys means the Mexican government needs to bring a hybrid solution to the problem. A pure military solution will fail, as will a pure focus on civilian institutions or economic development. The Mexican government can't out-gun them or out-lawyer them or out-develop them. The DTOs are too swift to adapt and find the weak spot in any of those strategies. Some mixture creating a comprehensive strategy needs to be developed by implemented by the Calderon government.
The one thing the Mexican government can't do is cede the moral high ground or try to out-terrorize the cartels. Every government in this situation faces the temptation of taking the low road and using non-institutional means to take down their opponent. As discussed on this blog previously, there is a rise of vigilante justice and paramilitary structures in a number of countries currently in Latin America, not just Mexico. It's a temptation that has long term costs that far outweigh the short term benefits. The focus on democratic institutions and human rights has to be part of the long-term solution for the Mexican government, no matter how cruel the hybrid war turns.
