I keep coming back to two points of analysis:
1) Sebastián Piñera has led every or nearly every poll in the past year.
2) Sebastián Piñera has never had obtained over 50% in an unadjusted poll*.
The fact the leading candidate has never been able to cross the 50% mark shows just how divided this electorate is. Recent polls have shown Frei close the gap and the two candidates are in a virtual tie in most polls at the moment with a significant number of voters undecideds. Piñera may have a small advantage in the polls, but all the momentum seems to be with Frei. Asked for my prediction, I think this one is too close to call.
One month ago, following the first round, I asked three questions about Chile's election. Here are the answers as they appear immediately before the second round.
Can Piñera win enough votes to close the deal?
At least in the polling before the second round, the answer appears to be no. His polling has barely moved at all since the first round when he obtained 44% of the vote. He may still manage to squeak by a victory, but it is far from certain. He'll be fighting for every vote.
Can Frei attract MEO voters even though the two candidates fought hard throughout the first round?
The answer is a "Yes, but...". According to one recent poll (h/t RF) 44% of MEO voters are going with Frei, 20% with Piñera and 35% are undecided. Other polls show similar numbers. Frei is taking just under half the MEO votes and will likely grab a number of the remaining undecideds. He won't get all the votes, but if he manages to get 60%-70% of them, it will be close to what he needs to win.
How does MEO try to influence his voters?
He really hasn't. He announced earlier this week that he would vote for Frei to prevent a right-wing win, which was proclaimed a big win for Frei by the media. But MEO has been focused on building his own political movement and said he would not participate in the new government if Frei won. He hasn't campaigned for Frei.
*Recent polls that show Piñera above 50% are adjusting for valid votes by removing voters who say they are undecided. If you include undecided voters, Piñera has never obtained a majority.
