At some point today, Pepe Lobo will be inaugurated president of Honduras. From my perspective, that moment signals the end of the coup in which the military stepped in to overthrow a democratically elected president and the end of the constitutional crisis that pitted the Congress and Supreme Court against President Zelaya. The transition back to democracy begins. Some, but not all, countries will take steps to recognize the new government. In the eyes of many in Honduras and around the world, Honduras will begin to return to normal.
But normal is not good enough.
Prior to the constitutional crisis and coup, normal in Honduras meant a country that was among the poorest in the hemisphere, with rising crime and weak government institutions. Honduras' normal was a crisis waiting to happen. It was fuel for a fire waiting for a spark.
We've discussed and debated that spark endlessly for the past seven months. A president who clashed with the other branches of government in what appeared to some to be a quest for additional power, a military who stepped in and took sides, a Congress and Supreme Court who post-hoc justified the military's coup rather than defend democracy, a stubborn interim leader who stifled negotiations and restricted basic human rights. I'm sure those debates will continue.
But the key problem sitting in front of President Lobo is not the spark that caused the previous coup (though issues there still remain), it's the fuel that threatens to ignite again. Honduras' economy is far worse after the coup. Crime and impunity continue to degrade institutions throughout the country. Political and social divides have been intensified. To simply return to normal, to pretend that Honduras before the coup was an ideal situation, cannot be acceptable for the new president.
As the goal in post-earthquake Haiti is to rebuild its infrastructure better than before, the goal in post-coup Honduras is to rebuild its institutions better than before. The hemisphere, including the OAS and the US, should help, but Honduras must take the lead. President Lobo needs to bring the entire society together including those who disapprove of him to debate the big issues. He needs to reform the military so it stays out of politics and reform the judicial system so it can be relevant to the needs to the needs of the average citizen. He must protect basic human rights including freedom of speech and the political rights of minorities, which were destroyed during the coup but weren't doing so well beforehand either. And on top of that, he needs to tackle the problems of economics and security from day one to keep the country stable.
The transition back to democracy is a necessary step, but it's not sufficient. Honduras needs a new normal that breaks from its past or it will face another crisis in the next decade. That's the challenge President Lobo faces in his term.
