There are multiple, complex legislative battles going on in Ecuador right now over education, water, petroleum and other issues. Without going over all the gritty details, the general theme is that President Correa is not getting everything he wants. He has been unable to pass some reforms due to tensions with the indigenous communities. Last week, for the first time in his term, Congress voted down a law requested by the president. He avoided reforms to the hydrocarbon bill, but only because his party did not show up to last night's debate, preventing a quorum.
Yesterday, Correa threatened to dissolve the Congress and hold new elections for the Congress and Presidency (elections aren't scheduled until 2013). As he said, "We will call the Ecuadorean public to go to the ballot box as many times as needed." Correa knows he's a strong campaigner, wants to get his supporters back in the political process and wants a reaffirmation of his mandate.
Allow me to stress: Dissolving the Congress and holding new congressional and presidential elections is a completely constitutional move in Ecuador. The president's right to do so is in the new constitution.
Still, it would be a gutsy call for someone whose opinion rating today is lower than it was when he won the last elections. The opposition is also more organized than it was last year. Correa's AP would probably lose seats in the Congress and though he'd be the favorite to win the presidency, it would be a tougher battle than before. Correa may be a strong campaigner, but the conditions today are simply less favorable than they were for him in early 2009.
Meanwhile, two other areas of tensions have popped up in recent days.
Last week, rumors circulated through the Ecuadoran military that the government was planning changes to the military retirement system. Defense Minister Ponce had to release a video knocking down some of those rumors, but he admitted that the economic crisis had harmed the financial system that funds the military's pensions. Officers have also expressed discontent over salaries. It's never a good thing when military rumblings make it to the media.
Also last week, amid the Colombia-Venezuela dispute, Ecuador's ambassador to the OAS was forced to resign by Foreign Minister Patiño. It appears Patiño attempted use Ecuador's position as the rotating chair of the Permanent Council to stop the meeting from occurring, and the OAS ambassador refused to do so.
