I was going back through 2011 looking for trends in the region, and one thing that stands out is that the biggest elections of this year do not show any significant regional trend.
In Guatemala, after the disqualification of President Colom's ex-wife as a candidate, the country still healing from civil war turned to a former general to manage its security challenges. Security dominated the debate and economics barely registered as an issue. Where it did, it was notable that now President-elect Perez and his opponent Baldizon both fought over who would do more to keep the current government's social programs in place.
In Peru, in spite of strong economic statistics, the population was generally negative about the current direction of the country. The non-traditional candidates of Humala and Fujimori defeated the more traditional politicians in the first round, leaving the country with the choice of "AIDS or Cancer" as author Mario Vargas Llosa put it. Humala's smart campaign in which he moved to the political center along with concerns about Fujimori's past led Vargas Llosa with the majority of Peru in choosing Humala.
In Argentina, President Kirchner built a huge reelection win off the public perception of a strong economy and sympathy over the recent death of her husband. Though inflation remains among the highest in the hemisphere and there are concerns over long term economic issues, the Argentine opposition never even came close.
In Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega led in the polls and could have likely won a democratic election if one had been held. But he didn't risk holding it to make sure the polls were correct. The Sandinista controlled electoral tribunal interfered in observation and appears to have manipulated the vote count, giving Ortega a large but disputed victory margin. The opposition has refused to recognize the results and international observers have criticized the conditions of the elections.
In Jamaica, the ruling party was defeated in snap elections called at the end of the year due to discontent over the weak economy and controversy over how security issues were handled by the previous government.
If you look at those five elections, there is no clear regional shift to the left, right or center, no clear preference for new or old politicians, no leaning towards incumbents or oppositions, no region-wide movement on economics or security. It's not just presidential elections. The same lack of a regional ideological pattern holds true if you look at legislative and municipal elections, major legislation passed, or protest movements. Every country is different and goes its own way and there is no one ideological direction sweeping the region.
While I look for regional trends, the country by country view always matters and sometimes there is simply no regional trend to be found in a certain area. The lack of a trend is just as significant to note as actually finding one.
