As international media ramp up coverage of the Mexican presidential election in 2012, journalists will discuss the impact of organized crime on the election in two ways. Some will portray organized crime as one of the main issues if not the top issue for presidential candidates and voters. Others will portray organized crime as an actual threat to Mexican democracy, something that is and will undermine Mexico's democratic institutions.
So which is it? Is Mexico's organized crime a threat to democracy or an issue in a democratic election?
In the case of the presidential election, it's just an issue. The criminal organizations are not going to control a candidate or rig the national election. They don't even have a collective preference in terms of who wins, though certainly some political pundits will try to make that case for one side or another. It's certainly a critical issue as the next president sets out a revised strategy to combat the influence and spread of crime and violence. But Mexican democracy at the national and presidential level isn't about to be toppled or significantly undermined, so it can't really be a threat to democracy.
For some states and municipalities below the national level, it is fair to say that criminals are an actual threat to democracy. Mexico's criminal groups kill mayors, corrupt police officers, deteriorate (and in some cases replace) government services and silence civil society in ways that undermine the basic social contract between the people and their government. While saying Mexico at a national level is on the verge of being a Failed State is an exaggeration and not particularly useful, it may not be too far off to give that failed label to some of Mexico's states, small 's', or municipalities.
Balancing that national vs local view will be a challenge for those covering and commenting on the Mexican election. We (I include myself) should avoid portraying Mexico's presidential election as a life or death struggle for Mexico's democracy. At the same time, we shouldn't downplay the very real threat that the criminal groups pose to the lives and ability to live in freedom for the populations in some parts of Mexico.
