What little international attention was paid to Nicaraguan President Ortega's inauguration focused on the presence of the leaders of Venezuela and Iran. However, it was the presence of three other presidents and the absence of one that could have a bigger impact on the country's foreign affairs.
As Tim Rogers reports, Ortega gave an excessively long speech trailing off into random foreign affairs topics at times. Ortega took time to thank each and every foreign representative who attended the event, many of whom sat at the table with him. Ortega saw the foreign visitors as a legitimization of his controversial reelection, which other countries have criticized.
It was within that praise that Nicaragua's president appears to reach out to his neighbors. Ortega had high praise for Guatemalan President Colom. More important for the future, he warmly embraced Guatemalan President-elect Otto Perez, praising the former general for his role in helping bring about the peace process. Ortega gave a warm welcome to Honduran President Pepe Lobo, glossing over the events of 2009 and giving Lobo credit for managing the country through difficult political and security circumstances. Finally, Ortega cheered on Salvadoran President Mauricio Funes, with whom he's had some differences behind the scenes, saying the FMLN chose the correct candidate.
Left out of Ortega's friendship-fest was Costa Rican President Chinchilla. She and Ortega have a long feud over multiple issues including ongoing conflict over the management of development, environmental and sovereignty issues on both sides of the Rio San Juan. Chinchilla didn't attend and I didn't hear any kind words towards Costa Rica in Ortega's speech.
Over the past two years Ortega has at times distanced himself from the rest of Central America. The feud with Costa Rica and holding out on the readmission of Honduras were two big issues. At one point, the relationship was bad enough he skipped a presidential SICA conference in El Salvador to meet instead with the presidents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Using his inauguration speech to praise Presidents Lobo and Perez may not make ideological "leftist" groups in the hemisphere happy, but may show Ortega returning to a type of pragmatism in which he works with his neighbors in spite of differences.
While I'm sure those politicians and analysts who want to see every country reject Ortega's reelection are frustrated by his neighbors' show of support, the fact is that the Central American countries need each other. They are better off working together except in the most extreme circumstances.
In some ways, the situation is comparable to Lobo's election in 2009 and readmission to the region in 2010 (something that Ortega opposed at the time). There were flaws with the Honduran election, but there are too many important issues to keep Honduras out of the regional dialogue for the next four years. The rest of Central America recognized the importance of working with Honduras and brought them back into the regional group. Similarly, it's not practical to expect Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to reject Ortega over the election controversy and refuse to work with him for the next five years. It would do significant damage to the region's diplomacy and integration while providing limited or no benefits for democracy.
To conclude, yesterday's inauguration appeared to signal a stronger working relationship among Perez, Funes, Lobo and Ortega. It also signaled a continued distance between Ortega and Chinchilla. All of those relationships have far more direct and daily impact on the country and region than Ortega's relationship with leaders outside of Central America and are the ones analysts should watch closely.
