While Venezuela must still muster a two-thirds majority in a secret ballot of 193 member nations at the U.N. General Assembly next month, the lack so far of a rival candidate from the region means the chances of its candidacy being derailed are slim, analysts say.
Venezuela and Guatemala (backed by the US) engaged in a very divisive UN Security Council seat vote in 2006. The region divided and ended up coming to a compromise of Panama after several dozen rounds of voting.
This detail from the AP should not be overlooked:
Following that display of disunity [in 2006], regional governments agreed in private to alternate representation in a certain order. Under those procedures, it’s now Venezuela’s turn.
While I'm sure some analysts want to view the choice of Venezuela as a blow to the US, Latin America and the Caribbean aren't doing this to send a message to their neighbor up north. Instead, the region has an agreement that means it's Venezuela's turn. Nobody from the region is standing up to challenge Venezuela's turn at this seat. While I'm sure some of the Maduro government opponents in Venezuela and the US want to find an alternative and then engage in a high profile diplomatic fight that would leave everyone feeling bitter and angry, we've all got better things to spend our time and political capital on.
Another important note left out of the AP report: Venezuela will be replacing Argentina. While Venezuela's rhetoric will probably be sharper, their voting won't be that far off from the seat's current occupant. As the shift from Argentina to Venezuela isn't shifting the balance of voting on the UNSC much, it shouldn't worry the US.
Venezuela's influence is waning regionally and its government has low support domestically. The country has high inflation, high crime, a shortage of supplies and can barely pay its own bills. The fact they will be able to launch verbal bombs from their UN Security Council seat won't help the Maduro government deal with those basic facts on the ground.
Venezuela's influence is waning regionally and its government has low support domestically. The country has high inflation, high crime, a shortage of supplies and can barely pay its own bills. The fact they will be able to launch verbal bombs from their UN Security Council seat won't help the Maduro government deal with those basic facts on the ground.
Picking and choosing which diplomatic battles to fight is important. It's not worth the fight here.
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As a side note, my blog will hit ten years old next week. That means I have a long track record (over 4,300 posts!) that I can turn to when these sorts of events happen. When I read Venezuela was going to win the UNSC seat, I wondered "What did 2006 me write about this issue?" Here it is:
I know exactly how Venezuela will act if they get voted in: Venezuela will abuse its seat on the UN Security Council. Their votes and their rhetoric will anger the world community, particularly on Iran. They'll probably send a UN representative who doesn't play by the usual diplomatic rules. Their agenda will be biased to help their own political whims. They'll hold countries to double standards, condemning alleged abuses of their enemies while ignoring those of their allies. They'll try to block or ignore resolutions they don't like. There will be many occasions they will vote in the clear minority. Their speeches will be short on facts and long on overhyped rhetoric. They'll try to buy votes using their wealth and will threaten to withhold aid when countries don't vote their way. They will continue to try to influence the politics of other nations. They'll use the UN where it is convenient and go around it when they can't get their way.
I certainly don't want a government acting like that on the UN Security Council. Unfortunately, I imagine the world community can only suppress laughter when the US makes those arguments against Venezuela being there.