Comments on Bloggings by boz: Who wins?

how do you guys have the time do check all the new...

2008-03-04T17:46:00.252-05:00

how do you guys have the time do check all the news places??!!

I'm just cool like that.

It's actually a combination of years of experience as a media analyst as well as the fact I'm not working full time at the moment.

..Looking at Boz's and Adam's latest posts, some m...

2008-03-04T09:43:08.605-05:00

..Looking at Boz's and Adam's latest posts, some many things are going on (how do you guys have the time do check all the news places??!!), I almost don't know where to comment.

I've seen what Boz saw, about FAC saying they're not sending any troops to the border (don't know about the Daily Mail article that Leftside saw) and this is consistent with what we're seeing/hearing here right now in Ecuador, i.e., no news of troop movements on Colombian side of the border. I should note that Correa's MinDefense Wellington Sandoval and Gustavo Larrea, who carries title of Minister of Internal/External Security (but has no staff to speak of), announced that Ecuador is sending 3,200 additional troops to the border provinces (there are roughly 12,000 military and cops, combined, in the six northern provinces already).

An Ecuadorian military consultant said this morning on local tv that just in Sucumbios province alone there are known to be 47 different FARC encampments and that Reyes had been moving from site to site on monthly basis, off and on, over the last four years. Without commenting on the veracity of these assertions, it'll be interesting to see if the Ecuadorians find any more FARC in the coming hours/days....

There are always the old punitive ground and air i...

2008-03-03T19:11:30.712-05:00

There are always the old punitive ground and air incursions, like the Israeli's would do in Lebanon before 82. Move in five miles across the border, try to batter your enemy as much as you can through airstrikes - ideally take out his air force.

Chavez probably doesn't have the capability.
Venezuela's military has oldish US equipment, supplemented by more recent buys from former Soviet Republics, including air defense systems and planes. The bulk of that stuff is either refitted from the 80's and 90's, more recent versions currently used by Russia or produced for export. Basically, hardware that was so effective for Saddam Hussein - twice.
Rumor has it, when the latest Russian fighters arrived, they had mock dogfights with the older F-16's in Venezuela's inventory, and all the Russian planes were "shot down"

FT has an article up suggesting that I'm wrong an...

2008-03-03T18:39:32.713-05:00

FT has an article up suggesting that I'm wrong and that Venezuela doesn't have the capabilities they claim.

Tambopaxi, you seem to be disagree with my argumen...

2008-03-03T15:09:07.851-05:00

Tambopaxi, you seem to be disagree with my argument that Colombia will not invade Venezuela or Ecuador again (thus achieving the strategic objective of both countries). Well, let me point you to a Daily Mail article that says that the US Govt. has delivered that very message to Uribe. The reason it because the US economy could not take a jolt from the resultant spike in oil prices.

IMO there are no achievable strategic goals in suc...

2008-03-03T14:58:22.668-05:00

IMO there are no achievable strategic goals in such conflict, and a war could thus only start if either or both sides miscalculate. So, if there is one situation we should game, it is that of a serial screwup leading to both countries unwillingly blundering into war. Which is what the US military calls, I believe, Condition Charlie-Foxtrot.

At the small unit level, Colombia's soldiers and m...

2008-03-03T14:46:08.804-05:00

At the small unit level, Colombia's soldiers and marines are tough, motivated, battle-hardened veterans of years of constant combat, led by experienced officers. Experienced senior officers lead larger units where the empahsis is on mobility - after the guerillas overann those towns in the 90's. As shown this weekend, they have good intelligence, interservice coordination, command and control, are highly mobile, flexible, and can bring a lot of firepower to bear on an area.

Venezuela's army is having problems, since Chavez has been shifting from U.S. doctrines from squad to division level, to his ideas of "assymetric warfare". Makes for inconsistent training, confusion in the officer corps.

While Colombias' army has been cracking down on its past history of corruption, Venezuela's is going the other way with Senior Officers appointed to civilian posts, looting like crazy.

As a whole it is less cohesive than the Colombian army, has much less experience, and would probably get trounced by the Colombians.

Plus low key American help, could shut down Venezuela's communications, and a couple of Stealth bombers could probably knock out Venezuela's command and control, .

In one piece of good news, the Colombian governmen...

2008-03-03T14:26:24.316-05:00

In one piece of good news, the Colombian government has said they will NOT send additional troops to the borders to counter the Ecuadorian and Venezuelan troop increases.

Usually, that would be a good step towards diffusing tensions, but in this case, it might just piss Chavez off that they aren't taking him seriously.

The whole idea of regional war sounds more like lo...

2008-03-03T14:25:16.612-05:00

The whole idea of regional war sounds more like local knockoff of Risk. Given the currency of the subject, someone could make a pretty penny if they did a three country version of the game with in detail military overlay to it. Given that intellectual property rights are regularly flaunted down here, I shouldn't be surprised if somebody does what I posit and really does call it "Risk SudAmerica" or something like that...

Re: Leftside's comments, I'd agree that chances are low that war will happen. Colombia's only interested in making sure that the FARC is marginalized or neutralized as a political/military force within its borders. Everyone recognizes the duplicity of Venezuela and Ecuador in tsk-tsking the war in Colombia all the while sheltering FARC combatants on their territory.

Still, I should think that VZ, EC and the FARC now realize that there's a price that can be paid for winking at (if not abetting) FARC presence in their countries. If Chavez (or Correa, for that matter), in his bluster thinks that he'll intimidate Colombia into not doing anything further about the FARC when they deem it necessary, he's mistaken.

Colombia's been at war now for years. Colombians know what it costs, what it entails, and how to make it; that's how and why they were able to whack Reyes over here in Ecuador. VZ and EC do not know any of the above and they'd be well advised to avoid finding out the nature of those costs.

The simplest thing for Chavez and Correa to do would be to throw the (Colombian) FARC out of their countries. Reyes wouldn't have died in Ecuador if the GOE hadn't let him in there to begin with (this presumes that the Ecuadorian military was competent enough to be aware of his presence, but perhaps I presume too much).

I hope that the two Presidents now realize that Colombia won't remain idle while the FARC thinks it can literally get away with murder and mayhem and skip across the border into welcoming VZ and EC arms. Chavez and Correa (and fatally, Reyes) made that mistake to begin with; I hope they don't make it again.

I think a more relevant question/speculation is un...

2008-03-03T13:55:58.421-05:00

I think a more relevant question/speculation is under what conditions the crisis can be averted

Possibly, but I think realizing that a military conflict harms both sides and helps neither would be a good starting point for working to avoid it.

Leftside -Yes, if Ecuador learns its lesson, and s...

2008-03-03T13:47:11.389-05:00

Leftside -

Yes, if Ecuador learns its lesson, and stops sheltering the murderous thugs of FARC, this won't happen again.

This is getting too far ahead--I think a more rele...

2008-03-03T13:43:40.873-05:00

This is getting too far ahead--I think a more relevant question/speculation is under what conditions the crisis can be averted, e.g. what will each leader do.

There will be no war. The purpose of Chavez's stro...

2008-03-03T13:24:00.115-05:00

There will be no war. The purpose of Chavez's strong action on behalf of his hermano Correa was to assure that this never happens again. It won't.

The laptop is not nearly as relevatory as the Colombians (surprise) told us it was. Correa's committment is to help the border regions with better security (quite a lawless place at the moment) and to assist in any kind of "humanitarian and political agreements." There is not one iota of material assistance or anything that could be construed as such.

ow long before President Ortega in Nicaragua... wo...

2008-03-03T13:20:38.555-05:00

ow long before President Ortega in Nicaragua... would use the conflict between Venezuela and Colombia as an opportunity to take the San Andres Province and erase the Esguerra-Bárcenas treaty.

That's actually a scenario I've considered along with a possible naval confrontation between Colombia and Venezuela.

Part of the issue is that Nicaragua is more interested in waters around San Andres than in the islands themselves (it's about fishing and underwater energy resources, not the land). If Nicaragua or Venezuela do a military push for the islands and fail, Nicaragua would never get the compromise they would benefit from on dividing the territorial waters.

Are there any major bottlenecks... that could be b...

2008-03-03T13:14:28.924-05:00

Are there any major bottlenecks... that could be blocked...

There are bottlenecks and significant infrastructure. However, from what I understand, Venezuela could do pretty good job defending them against Colombia's capabilities.

Then again, that's just my assessment based on what I read in the media. I'm sure there are plenty of professional military capabilities analysts who could give more detailed answers. I'm better with the wider strategic than the specific capabilities questions.

And could troop movements further inflame anti-government sentiment in the restive Zulia state?

It could annoy the population of Zulia, but probably not lead to any significant backlash. I wouldn't expect any violent protests or movements to form, but there would probably be angry words by a few.

How long before President Ortega in Nicaragua, who...

2008-03-03T13:12:11.671-05:00

How long before President Ortega in Nicaragua, who is also deeply saddened by the loss of Reyes, would use the conflict between Venezuela and Colombia as an opportunity to take the San Andres Province and erase the Esguerra-Bárcenas treaty. Uribe may be forced to relocate the troops placed in San Andres back to the mainland; giving Ortega a window of opportunity to reacquire the territory and really get in the good graces of his Financial Backer, Chavez.

A big unknown is whether Venezuela's army we even ...

2008-03-03T13:08:56.714-05:00

A big unknown is whether Venezuela's army we even fight for Chavez in large numbers. And I don't believe the US would sit back and allow Chavez to scramble his jets into Colombian territory.

Reyes' laptop demonstrates Chavez and especially Correa have some 'splaining to do: http://bellipotentdocs.blogspot.com/

And could troop movements further inflame anti-gov...

2008-03-03T12:52:24.327-05:00

And could troop movements further inflame anti-government sentiment in the restive Zulia state?

What's the terrain like between Caracas and the fr...

2008-03-03T12:50:51.558-05:00

What's the terrain like between Caracas and the frontier? Level? Mountainous? Are there any major bottlenecks (such as big bridges, roads through swamps, mountain passes) that could be blocked, cutting off Venezuelan troops that have progressed towards the frontier, and blocking troops further back?