Llama la atención la despolarización que empieza a concretarse en Venezuela, pues ya el país no se divide simplemente entre chavistas y opositores. 15,4% de los consultados afirma estar “resteado con Maduro”, 16,4% es “chavista no madurista”, 25,3% considera que “todos los políticos son iguales”, 13,3% es “oposición no MUD” y 29,5% está “resteado con la MUD”.The party split is a number I've long tracked in Venezuela. While I'm not sure how accurate Delphos is, and this question is asked differently than other polls such as those by Datanalisis and Keller, let's run with these numbers from mid-April 2015 for a moment. What are the implications of this party divide in Venezuela?
Briceño destacó que la mayoría de los consultados (55,1%) está fuera de los polos, pues es “oposición no MUD” o “chavista no madurista”.
1) That is a significant divide within the Chavistas. The Chavistas retain their 30-35% base of support in the country, but only half of those Chavistas support President Maduro. It reinforces something I've written before, that Maduro's biggest threat to power is within his own party.
2) The MUD are doing better, with 30% of the country supporting them, and 43% supporting a generic political opposition. But that's still not over 50%. It's amazing to think that with all the problems Venezuela has, it does not have an opposition leader or party in the country that is close to uniting a majority. That's a serious problem for whomever comes next (whenever that happens), because they will likely win due to the unpopularity of Chavismo, not a unifying idea for fixing the country's problems.
3) 25% are definitely in the ni-ni category and perhaps as much as 55% if you add those who do not identify with either Maduro or the MUD opposition leadership.
As I wrote in April 2014:
The polarization of the country's politics means that people have been forced to choose sides or not participate at all. Neither Maduro nor Capriles are suggesting that the dialogue include someone to represent the ni-nis, the disaffected Chavistas, the moderate opposition or the swing voters, even if that broad dialogue would be more representative of society.These poll numbers continue to show that a majority of the population do not feel represented by the political leaders who clash on a daily basis in the media and claim to speak for the public.
Venezuela doesn't just need a dialogue in which political leaders talk with each other. Venezuela's political leaders need to have a dialogue with the rest of the population.